FX Markets Focus Our approach to currency valuation This Focus provides an overview of the concepts and models underpinning our new FX Markets Valuations Monitor. It is split into three sections. The first explains our framework for thinking about... 20th August 2021 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Is the US dollar overvalued? The recent gains in the US dollar have left it somewhat above its “fair” value on most metrics we track, but we doubt this will prevent it from rising over the next 6-12 months. 20th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update The virus and global stock markets Progress made by countries in dealing with COVID-19 still seems to have had little bearing, in general, on the relative performance of their stock markets. Instead, swings in sentiment about the virus... 20th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Gains in EM equities may be small from here We don’t expect emerging market (EM) equities, as a whole, to rack up big gains over the next few years thanks in part to the spillovers of lower growth in China. 19th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the risk to Treasuries from tapering The muted reaction in the Treasury market following the release of the minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting may seem surprising given the revelation that most participants thought it could be... 19th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Asia bucks the monetary policy trend Several EM central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month or so in response to strong reopening rebounds (Chile, Czech Republic, Hungary) and/or rising inflation concerns... 18th August 2021 · 10 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative valuations of US housing and equities Despite growing talk of another bubble in the US housing market, its valuation remains far less stretched than that of the US stock market and is not alarming in our view given the prospects for... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We expect US credit spreads to continue to rise We suspect that corporate credit spreads in the US have now troughed and expect them to keep rising. 17th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Some global market implications of China’s slowing growth We expect slowing economic growth in China to continue to be a headwind for commodity-linked currencies and stock markets over the next couple of years. 16th August 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Norway going its own way The SNB and the Riksbank will leave interest rates on hold throughout 2022 and 2023 and probably beyond, but the start of rate hikes by the Norges Bank is edging ever closer. (See here.) Once the... 16th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Dollar rally takes a breather as US Treasury yields stall The US dollar looks set to end the week little changed against most currencies, as US inflation data – this week’s main data release – failed to push up the currency further. Next week, the minutes of... 13th August 2021 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We expect risky assets to hold up despite ‘peak growth’ narrative In our view, most ‘risky’ assets are likely to perform quite well over the next few years despite the ‘peak growth’ narrative that has gained traction recently, but there are some key exceptions. 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Tapering and Treasuries We think tapering by the Fed will remove an obstacle in the way of higher long-term yields, supporting our view that their latest rebound will continue, in general, over the next couple of years. 13th August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX We expect rising UST yields to extend the dollar’s rally We expect further rises in US Treasury yields to support continued gains in the US dollar against most other developed market (DM) currencies, especially the yen and the Swiss franc. 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Weighing up the prospects for DM sovereign yields Given our forecasts for the paths of monetary policy across developed markets, we expect a general ‘bear steepening’ of sovereign yield curves in the near term, particularly in the US, Canada and... 13th August 2021 · 4 mins read
