Long Run Update What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s. 31st August 2021 · 6 mins read
China Chart Pack Party soon to target property and healthcare costs A WeChat post by a prominent blogger voicing support for Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign has been widely re-published by state media, giving it a rare seal of Party approval. The post argues... 31st August 2021 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally reverses on dovish Powell; payrolls coming up The US dollar gave back much of its gains from last week, as appetite for risk recovered and Chair Powell’s much-anticipated speech today provided some relatively dovish guidance on the path for Fed... 27th August 2021 · 9 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack China’s growth slowdown may hold back EM equities We think slower growth in China will continue to weigh on the country’s stock market, as well as those of some other emerging markets (EMs). 27th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Survey synchronisation; NOK resurgence The sharp fall in the forward-looking Swiss investor sentiment indicator in August mirrored the pattern seen in the German Ifo. While sentiment was bound to soften sooner or later and Switzerland has... 27th August 2021 · 6 mins read
India Economics Weekly Kerala concerns, Sensex surge Headline numbers suggest that the recent virus outbreak in Kerala has been brought under control, but that seems to be in large part a reflection of a sharp fall in testing. And with vaccination... 27th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Long Run Update Our views on the US dollar’s long-term prospects Although we forecast the greenback will rise further over the next year or two, we think that it will face growing headwinds over the longer term. In view of the wider interest, we have made this FX... 26th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What the S&P 500’s valuation may mean for future returns Although the US stock market’s valuation is nearly as high now as it was at the height of dot com mania, we don’t expect the return from it to be as bad in the next decade as it was in the 2000s. 26th August 2021 · 6 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Fed’s inflation tolerance may lead to higher bond yields A year after the Fed announced its new policy framework, we think that bond markets still don’t fully reflect the likelihood of a prolonged period of above-target inflation. 25th August 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Jackson Hole, tapering, and the risk of higher Treasury yields We doubt that a hint at this week’s Jackson Hole symposium that the Fed may soon wind down its bond purchases would spark a sell-off in US Treasuries as dramatic as 2013’s “taper tantrum”. However, we... 25th August 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the rebound in EM currencies will last We think that the recent rebound in emerging market (EM) currencies will be short-lived, and that most will fall further against the US dollar this year. 24th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Aug.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 24th August 2021 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The latest stock market sell-off and the rotation trade We think the sectoral rotation trade will be a key feature of stock markets as economies continue to recover, resulting in the US market generally trailing those elsewhere. 23rd August 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally continues as Jackson Hole approaches The US dollar has risen sharply this week, reaching its highest level of the year as continued fears about the spread of the “delta” variant and further evidence of growing risks in China (around its... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Valuations Monitor We think the US dollar is strong, but could rise further The US dollar remains somewhat above its “fair” value on most of the metrics we track. But its overvaluation is not extreme by historical standards, nor is that of many other currencies, and we do not... 20th August 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Focus Our approach to currency valuation This Focus provides an overview of the concepts and models underpinning our new FX Markets Valuations Monitor. It is split into three sections. The first explains our framework for thinking about... 20th August 2021 · 14 mins read
