Capital Daily We doubt the rally in the US dollar is over Although the US dollar, in aggregate, has fallen back sharply from its high of the year over recent weeks, we expect it will soon reverse course and strengthen against most currencies. CE Spotlight... 10th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Japan’s stock market to run out of steam While uncertainty remains about the implications of the resignation of Japan’s PM Suga for the country’s equities, we think the big picture is that they will see relatively small gains over the next... 10th September 2021 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Shortages stifling activity and boosting inflation The broadening of the recent product and labour shortages appears to be holding back activity and adding to the upward pressure on inflation. The risk is twofold. First, these shortages may prevent... 9th September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily E-Z yields likely to rise only gradually despite PEPP recalibration The ECB announced a reduction in the pace of its asset purchases today, but both its forward guidance and its updated economic projections still suggest that the Bank will keep monetary policy very... 9th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Evergrande & frontier sovereign debt risks build The combination of large foreign-currency debt burdens, low FX reserves and weakening currencies means that the risk of sovereign defaults in Sri Lanka and Tunisia is growing. Elsewhere, China’s... 9th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the US stock market’s relative valuation? The high valuations of US equities relative to those elsewhere are, in our view, another reason to think they will lag their peers in the rest of the world over the coming years. What next for the ECB... 8th September 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Treasury yields & the outlook for EM LC bonds We think that the increase in long-dated Treasury yields which we forecast will push up the yields of equivalent emerging market (EM) local-currency (LC) bonds. Based on historical relationships, we... 8th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of the summer doldrums While the past two weeks have seen a rebound in most risky assets, the summer months overall have been characterised by a relatively defensive tone across most financial markets. In our view, three... 6th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Rise in inflation is not over Headline inflation came in higher than our above-consensus forecast in August and, at 3.0%, reached its highest level for a decade. It is likely to rise a bit further in the coming months: producer... 6th September 2021 · 11 mins read
Global Markets Update Four points on tapering and government bond yields We don’t think tapering by the Fed will cause long-term Treasury yields to rise sharply, although it may contribute some upward pressure. But we do think those yields will rise quite a bit anyway... 3rd September 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar remains on the back foot after August payrolls The US dollar was little changed following the surprisingly weak August payrolls data, despite a small rise in US government bond yields. It looks set to end another week lower against most currencies... 3rd September 2021 · 10 mins read
China Economics Weekly Regulatory crackdown or ideological campaign? What looked like a tech crackdown, broadened to a crackdown on large private firms, then to a wider regulatory push. This week it started to resemble a society-wide ideological campaign aimed at... 3rd September 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Post-payrolls jump in Treasury yields likely to continue While the jump in the 10-year Treasury yield following the surprisingly weak August non-farm payrolls report is somewhat counterintuitive, we still expect bond yields to rise further. 3rd September 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update EM assets & the risk of higher inflation We think that there is a risk of a period of moderately higher inflation in some major emerging markets (EMs) over the coming years. If that came to pass, it would probably be bad news for local... 3rd September 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the Swedish krona to outperform the UK pound We think that the prospects for monetary tightening point to an appreciation of the Swedish krona relative to the UK pound over the next 6-18 months. 2nd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation & the outlook for E-Z & US Yields While we think that 10-year government bond yields in both the US and the euro-zone will rise over the next few years, we expect increases in yields to be much smaller in the euro-zone given the... 31st August 2021 · 7 mins read
