Bonds & Equities Taking stock of Russia/Ukraine tensions & market implications With tensions between Russia and Ukraine continuing, the risk of a conflict with far-reaching economic consequences remains uncomfortably high. This Update considers what the impact on global... 18th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Revisiting EM FX debt risks With FX debt burdens relatively low in most major EMs, the risk of debt crises triggered by rising US interest rates and a stronger dollar looks limited. Vulnerabilities are generally limited to... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly LIC IPO unlikely to ignite privatisation drive Local media has been awash with commentary about the initial public offering (IPO) of Life Insurance Corporation (LIC) after the state-owned behemoth this week submitted its draft prospectus. From a... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think relative yields will continue to favour the US dollar While investors have now discounted a lot of policy rate hikes in the US over the next couple of years, we think they may still be underestimating how high the fed funds rate will go this tightening... 17th February 2022 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update The outlook for German and Swiss Government bonds We think that the gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds will re-emerge over the next couple of years as the ECB tightens policy more quickly than the SNB. In view of the... 17th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The strength in EM commodity currencies may prove fleeting Despite their strong start to 2022, we think that emerging market commodity currencies will struggle over the next couple of years as commodity prices fall back from their current high levels. That... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary tightening may continue to limit risky assets’ gains Even if tensions between Russia and Ukraine abated, we wouldn’t expect risky assets to gain all that much over the rest of this year and next, mainly because we think ongoing monetary tightening would... 16th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for German and Swiss government bonds We expect a gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to re-emerge as policy support is withdrawn more quickly by the ECB than by the SNB. 15th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets caught between a rock and a hard place Two unfamiliar and (largely) unrelated fears are stalking financial markets: the prospect of aggressive policy tightening from major central banks, and the apparent risk of a war between Russia and... 14th February 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar stays dormant amid surging short-term yields The US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies despite a favourable shift in government bond yield differentials. While we suspect there is limited scope for a... 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM LC government bonds to be a mixed bag We think that yields of 10-year emerging market local-currency government bonds may, in general, increase by more in Asia than in other regions by end-2023, in contrast with the pattern over the past... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The Treasury yield curve: 1994 up front, 2015 in the back? We think long-term Treasury yields will rise only gradually even if the Fed hikes rates at a rapid clip. 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the case for a stronger dollar Although last week’s hawkish surprises from the ECB and the Bank of England weaken the case for further US dollar appreciation against the euro, sterling, and other European currencies, we are... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
