China Economic Outlook Downturn setting in The economy slowed sharply in Q3. Weakness in services is already reversing as virus controls have been relaxed again. But industry and construction are on the cusp of a deeper downturn that could... 26th October 2021 · 23 mins read
Capital Daily Inflation compensation, Treasury yields & the US stock market While we do not expect a tumble in the US stock market, we doubt that it will remain quite as resilient in the face of rising US Treasury yields as it has in recent weeks. 25th October 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar edges lower ahead of next round of CB meetings With a couple of exceptions, currency markets have had a quiet week; the US dollar is ending the week a touch weaker against most other currencies, but in aggregate it remains close to its strongest... 22nd October 2021 · 9 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Oct.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 22nd October 2021 · 1 min read
Capital Daily We think Brazil’s financial markets will remain under pressure While Brazil’s financial markets have now fallen a long way, we don’t expect them to rebound any time soon. 22nd October 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors overestimating interest rate hikes The extent of the shift in investors’ expectations of interest rates over the past month has been staggering. Investors are now pricing in an 80% chance of a hike to Bank Rate, from 0.10% to 0.25%, at... 22nd October 2021 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus Examining the threat to US equities from rising wage inflation We expect rising wage inflation in the US to squeeze the profits of the non-financial corporate sector, which were a record high as a share of its output in Q2. This is one reason why we think the... 22nd October 2021 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Update Most signs point to further trouble for the Turkish lira We expect the Turkish lira to remain among the worst-performing currencies over the next two years, as political pressures, high inflation, and a vulnerable external position continue to weigh on the... 22nd October 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Market pricing on RBA too aggressive Despite the rise in virus cases in recent weeks, strong inflation in New Zealand increases the pressure on the RBNZ to tighten policy further. While we are sticking to our forecast of a 25bp hike in... 22nd October 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to add to the lira’s woes The lira fell to a new low against the US dollar today as a result of a larger-than-expected cut of 200 bp to the 1-week repo rate by Turkey’s central bank (CBRT). Continued pressure from President... 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update China’s economic slowdown and US Treasury yields Although slowing growth in China has probably weighed on US Treasury yields in the past, we don’t expect it to prevent them from rising over the next couple of years. 21st October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for DM monetary policy & bonds Even though we think that most major developed markets (DM) central banks will hike their policy rates more slowly than investors currently anticipate over the next two years, we still expect the... 20th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Near-term recovery to face stronger headwinds The region has experienced a rapid recovery, but the re-opening boost has now faded and the region is likely to face stronger headwinds in the near term due to surging COVID-19 cases, rising inflation... 20th October 2021 · 28 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Well placed to navigate choppy waters As highly-open economies, Switzerland and the Nordics are far from immune to the issues of slowing global growth and supply-chain shortages that are currently vexing investors. Sweden is perhaps most... 20th October 2021 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the rise in China’s bond yields to reverse Rather than continue its recent rise, we think that the 10-year government bond yield in China will fall back over the next couple of years, even as US Treasury yields climb further. 18th October 2021 · 5 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor Lower valuations may not help EM equities outperform We don’t think the low valuations of emerging market (EM) equity indices relative to those of developed markets (DMs) is reason to expect EM equities to outperform over the next couple of years. 18th October 2021 · 8 mins read
