Global Markets Update We think DM yield curves will steepen again While the recent rise in the yields of short-dated developed market (DM) government bonds looks overdone to us, we still think that the yields of long-dated bonds will resume their rise. 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: comparisons with the 2018 currency crisis The economic and political backdrop in Turkey is eerily similar to that which preceded the currency crisis in 2018, although one key difference now is that the lira doesn’t appear to be fundamentally... 3rd November 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Investors’ expectations and the outlook for DM monetary policy Although near-term inflationary pressures may prompt most developed market (DM) central banks to bring forward their plans to normalise policy a bit, we continue to think that most will raise rates... 2nd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We still expect E-Z peripheral spreads to remain low While the spreads of 10-year euro-zone “peripheral” government bonds have risen sharply since the ECB’s policy announcement last Thursday, we still expect them to remain very low over the next few... 1st November 2021 · 6 mins read
Commodities Update We don’t expect dollar/oil correlation to stay positive for long Despite their recent positive correlation, we think that oil and the dollar will go in opposite directions before long: we continue to think that oil prices will fall back as the supply situation... 1st November 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Currencies stay mostly calm amid carnage in bond markets Currency markets remained remarkably stable for most of this week, although the US dollar is rallying sharply today on the back of data showing very strong wage growth in the US, even as a major... 29th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Risky assets face a more challenging backdrop While the combination of a strong economic recovery and accommodative monetary policy has fuelled healthy returns for many investors over the past 18 months or so, we think that the macroeconomic... 29th October 2021 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily Monetary policy, the yield curve, and bond market conundrums While rises in short-term bond yields haven’t always coincided with higher long-term yields, we are sticking with our view that 10-year bond yields will rise in most major economies over the next... 29th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkey’s spat, Poland-EU dispute and the zloty A diplomatic spat between Turkey and its Western allies this week was quickly resolved, but it highlighted how vulnerable the lira is to geopolitical developments. And comments from Turkey’s central... 29th October 2021 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Renminbi’s strength carries echoes of 2015 The renminbi has risen 10% in trade-weighted terms since the middle of last year, reaching its strongest level in over five years this week. The last time we witnessed such rapid gains, they... 29th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily A few thoughts on developed market yield curves While the flattening of developed markets (DM) yield curves since mid-October gathered pace yesterday, we still expect yield curves in most DMs to steepen again in the near term. 28th October 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Outlook We expect long-term yields to rise further While long-dated government bond yields have risen quite a bit in recent months, we suspect that continued inflationary pressure and the prospect of tighter monetary policy means they still have some... 27th October 2021 · 29 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the dollar/oil relationship The relationship between the US dollar and the price of oil is usually negative, but over the past two months oil prices have risen and the greenback has appreciated. While this pattern may persist... 27th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fiscal risks in the spotlight The growing likelihood that Brazil’s government will circumvent its spending cap adds to broader signs that austerity is becoming politically difficult to implement across the region. For instance... 26th October 2021 · 10 mins read
FX Markets Update High-beta G10 rally built on shaky foundations We think that the recent re-pricing of near-term interest rate expectations across most developed markets is overdone and that several of the “high-beta” G10 currencies will come under renewed... 26th October 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Boost to gold from lower real yields may not last We don’t expect the price of gold to continue to rebound. Our forecast remains that it will end 2023 at $1,550/oz., which compares to a current level of closer to $1,800/oz. 26th October 2021 · 5 mins read
