FX Markets Update Bond market volatility may be taste of things to come in FX We think that the recent pick-up in bond market volatility will persist and that volatility in currency markets will also rise further as uncertainty around the economic outlook and monetary policy... 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We expect LatAm equities to trail those in EM EMEA We think that MSCI’s Emerging Markets (EM) Latin America Index will continue to underperform its EM EMEA Index over the next couple of years, albeit not to the same extent as it has in 2021 so far. 12th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Why isn’t high inflation taking a greater toll on the stock market? US equities have shrugged off this year’s surge in inflation, probably because it has not coincided with either a rise in the real yields of Treasuries or weakness in corporate earnings. We expect a... 11th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily US inflation compensation revisited US Treasury yields rose sharply following the release of US CPI inflation figures, which showed that inflation reached 6.2% y/y in October, reversing some of their recent falls. But, despite the pick... 10th November 2021 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Inflation on the launchpad We’ve been warning for a while that CPI inflation would rise further than most people expect and have recently pushed our own forecast even higher. We now think CPI inflation will rise from 3.1% in... 10th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Property sector woes not the only headwind for China’s equities The weakness in China’s real estate sector is only one of a number of reasons why we think that the country’s equities will remain under pressure over the coming years 9th November 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen remains vulnerable to rising US rates We expect the yen to weaken a bit more against the US dollar as we think that government bond yields in the US will resume their rise before long. 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Some more thoughts on the puzzling behaviour of Treasuries Last week’s behaviour of the Treasury market is puzzling for two reasons. First, a further paring back of expectations for tighter monetary policy following the Fed’s mid-week meeting might reasonably... 8th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery slowed by supply chain problems Economic growth has slowed sharply as output approaches its pre-pandemic level. We think that GDP will probably increase by only around 0.5% q/q in the final quarter, down from 2.2% in Q3... 8th November 2021 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the post-payrolls fall in Treasury yields will continue The decline in long-dated Treasury yields following the publication of the latest US employment report today is hard to justify, and we do not expect it to last. 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rallies & sterling drops on confusing BoE messaging After another week of wild swings in short-term interest rate markets, the US dollar is ending the week stronger against most major currencies. On a trade-weighted basis it is now near its strongest... 5th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We doubt Brazilian assets will rebound any time soon While Brazil’s bond and stock markets have struggled lately, we don’t think either are set for a significant rebound any time soon, and suspect both will remain under pressure in the run-up to next... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to remain under pressure We think that the Brazilian real will weaken a bit further against the US dollar over the next year, as fiscal risks and deteriorating terms of trade continue to weigh on the currency. In view of the... 4th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Three key points on the latest round of central bank meetings Over the past three days, the BoE, the Fed, and the RBA all delivered relatively dovish policy announcements, pushing back, to varying degrees, against the relatively aggressive policy rate paths... 4th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Reading the runes of relative valuation within the US stock market One reason to think that the performance of the US stock market will underwhelm, at least in the long run, is that some of the gaps between the valuations of its most highly and lowly valued companies... 4th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Two points on US corporate earnings and the stock market We think the earnings picture looks better for some sectors of the stock market than others, but overall it is likely to support only limited gains in equities over the next couple of years. 3rd November 2021 · 7 mins read
