Global Markets Update Revising our market forecasts in light of the war We think the war in Ukraine and a more hawkish Fed will cause the yield of 10-year US Treasuries and the US dollar generally to end 2022 and 2023 a bit higher than we had previously anticipated. We... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economics Weekly Liu reassures market, lockdowns to stay targeted Liu He's promise this week to be more considerate to market investors in how new policies are communicated and implemented doesn't constitute a fundamental change of direction. Meanwhile, the risk of... 18th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi, China and renminbi oil sales Were Saudi Arabia to accept renminbi for its oil exports to China, it would be a symbolic move but it would also run into a number of economic practicalities, especially given that the Kingdom could... 18th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Korea COVID surge, Thai baht to weaken Despite surging cases of COVID-19 in Korea, the economy appears to be holding up well. We are sticking with our view that the central bank will resume its tightening cycle in April. Meanwhile, the... 18th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We think the pound will continue to weaken against the dollar The pound gave back some of its recent gains following the BoE decision, and we think the exchange rate will continue to edge lower against the US dollar over the course of the year. 17th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Tweaking our forecasts for US Treasury yields We think the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to the 10-year Treasury yield ending this year and next a bit higher than we had previously anticipated, although we still expect it to rise only... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Lower valuations may help European equities outperform Their net fall since the invasion of Ukraine means the valuations of European equities are now even lower relative to those of US stocks. While valuations have a mixed track record at predicting... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We think rising US bond yields will continue to weaken the yen The yen has been steadily weakening over recent months even during “risk-off” periods in markets, and we think that it will fall further against the US dollar over the next year or two. 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Three ways the war has changed the markets outlook Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. In... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to the renminbi appear to be growing With several important factors pushing in the same direction, we continue to think that the renminbi will depreciate further against the US dollar over the remainder of this year. 15th March 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the commodity terms of trade shock in FX markets Although they have fallen back over the past week, we expect the prices of most commodities to remain elevated relative to their recent past. We will be revising our currency forecasts to reflect... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think US equities could continue to underperform Today’s price action reinforces our view that there is plenty of scope for mid- and large-cap equities in the US to underperform those in the rest of the developed world further if there is a de... 14th March 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Some signs of stabilisation amid fallout from the war The war in Ukraine continues to dominate both the news headlines and financial markets. While market conditions have remained very volatile, this week has seen a degree of stabilisation of risk... 11th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil embargoes and asset returns: lessons from 1973-74 If the Russia-Ukraine war escalated, we would expect some of the recent patterns in relative asset market performance to continue to echo those during the 1973-74 oil crisis. That said, we wouldn’t... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
