DM Markets Chart Pack We think US inflation compensation will rise further US 10-year inflation compensation has risen by another 20bp or so over the past month and we think it will increase further as inflation in the US proves more persistent than most expect. This is one... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar bull market might just be getting started The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing. 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM tightening cycles have further to run Inflation in the emerging world has generally surprised to the upside in recent months. But while inflation in most parts of Asia remains at levels which central banks are comfortable with, it has... 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Further rate cuts likely to put more pressure on the lira The Turkish lira has continued to plummet after Turkey’s central bank (CBRT) delivered a further 100bp cut to the one-week repo rate today. We think that continued political pressure will lead to... 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira sell-off and lessons from other “sudden stops” The fresh falls in the Turkish lira following the CBRT’s interest rate cut today have left Turkey firmly in crisis territory and echoes of previous “sudden stops” during major EM currency crises in... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Turkey and EM contagion risks The latest crisis engulfing Turkey is likely to make it harder for the country to roll over its external debts, with the banking sector particularly vulnerable. If Turkey’s crisis worsens, it may... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily We think that Gilt yields will rise by less than Treasury yields Although today’s UK inflation release has probably raised the likelihood that the Bank of England lifts interest rates next month, we think that investors are pricing in too many hikes over the next... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We now expect E-Z “peripheral” spreads to widen a bit We now think that, rather than remaining broadly stable, the spreads of euro-zone “peripheral” bonds will widen somewhat over the next two years as the ECB gradually normalises monetary policy. That... 17th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update All eyes on CBRT as Turkish lira continues to tumble There has been no let up for the Turkish lira today and all eyes are turning to the central bank’s interest rate decision tomorrow. Policymakers’ increased tolerance to falls in the lira as well as... 17th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Switzerland in the path of the Covid storm Germany and Austria are at the centre of the Covid storm in Europe, and the fact that vaccination coverage in Switzerland is even lower does not bode well. Vaccine take-up varies from about 60-80% in... 16th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: threat of currency crisis continues to grow The Turkish lira has remained under significant pressure at the start of this week and there is a growing risk that the central bank’s continued obedience to pressure from President Erdogan for... 16th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily We don’t expect the renminbi’s resilience to last Although the renminbi’s strength may persist for a bit longer, we still think the currency will weaken against the US dollar over the next year or so. 15th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily How far can the dollar rise? After its most recent surge on the back of last week’s strong payrolls report, this week’s exceptionally high inflation reading, and hawkish comments from some FOMC members, the DXY index has now... 12th November 2021 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rally may have further to run The US dollar has continued to grind higher against major currencies following the release of US inflation data on Wednesday, with the DXY index reaching its strongest level in over a year. Recent... 12th November 2021 · 11 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Why we still aren’t convinced the S&P 500 is in a bubble Even though the S&P 500 has risen by almost another 25% or so this year, we are still not persuaded that the US stock market is in a bubble that is about to burst. 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect Chinese government bond yields to decline In contrast with our expectations for sovereign bond yields to rise around the rest of the world, we think that the 10-year Chinese government bond yield will decline over the next couple of years as... 12th November 2021 · 3 mins read
