FX Markets Weekly Wrap COVID throws another curveball News late yesterday of a new and potentially more dangerous variant of COVID-19 emerging in South Africa has made a dramatic impact on financial markets today. In general, market shifts have been... 26th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We think E-Z peripheral spreads will widen further, eventually While the accounts of the ECB’s October meeting and recent comments by some ECB officials suggest to us that there might not be much scope for euro-zone “peripheral” spreads to increase further in the... 25th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Nov.) Our monthly Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections... 25th November 2021 · 1 min read
EM Markets Chart Pack Contagion from Turkey’s crisis likely to remain limited Spillovers to other emerging markets from Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis have been limited so far and we think this will remain the case even if Turkey’s financial markets remain under pressure. 24th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Macro fundamentals to support further shekel strength The Israeli shekel has appreciated sharply in the past few weeks, making it one of the best performing currencies during the pandemic. While we don’t expect this recent strength to continue in the... 24th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Steeper NZ yield curve may be sign of things to come elsewhere We think developed market yield curves will generally steepen in the near term, as central banks don’t deliver as many rate hikes as appear to be discounted in markets. 24th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey & policy responses during past “sudden stops” The Turkish lira’s sharp fall yesterday looks similar to the experience of sudden stops elsewhere. In those instances, central banks usually responded with interest rate hikes of around 600bp as well... 24th November 2021 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Backsliding on reforms? The repeal this month of controversial reforms aimed at liberalising the agriculture sector is arguably the biggest political setback that the Modi government has faced since coming to power in 2014... 24th November 2021 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Rising US rates bigger worry for EMs than Turkey contagion Turkey’s currency crisis – the lira is down another ~11% against the US dollar today, and ~35% in two months – is now reaching a scale where it raises the question of how badly it will affect other... 23rd November 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update Global exposure to Turkey’s currency crisis With the Turkish lira down by 9% so far today and 20% over the past week, the currency is now firmly in crisis territory. Higher inflation and tighter domestic financial conditions are likely to sap... 23rd November 2021 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira in freefall as policymakers remain defiant The Turkish lira has plunged this morning after President Erdogan signalled yesterday that policymakers have no appetite to respond to the currency’s recent falls by hiking interest rates. Further... 23rd November 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Markets Markets mistaken on speed of rate hikes Although the economic backdrop has recently become less favourable for UK asset prices, we expect that the economic recovery will regain some vigour in the second half of next year, that CPI inflation... 22nd November 2021 · 12 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Taking stock of potential corporate tax reforms This Update answers several questions on the Biden administration’s latest proposals for US corporate taxes as well as the global tax deal recently agreed among the world’s major economies. The... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Continued dollar rally looks increasingly likely The US dollar is set to end another week higher against nearly all major currencies. To a large extent, this latest rally appears to be driven by the rise in short-term government bond yields in the... 19th November 2021 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Low relative valuation of euro-zone equities may not last We think the recent fall in the valuation of euro-zone equities relative to those in the US may partly unwind, and expect the former to outperform the latter over the next few years. 19th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly SNB abandons its long-standing line of defence We argued only last week that the SNB would be comfortable with letting the Swiss franc rise against the euro. As it happens, after the franc pushed through the long-defended CHF 1.05 per euro mark in... 19th November 2021 · 4 mins read
