Capital Daily We think EM LC government bond yields will rise further We expect local-currency government bond yields in most emerging markets (EMs) to rise a bit in 2022, as EM central banks continue to tighten monetary policy and US Treasury yields increase. In China... 15th December 2021 · 7 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Investors spooked by Omicron risks The discovery of the Omicron COVID-19 variant in late November rattled UK markets. Equities tumbled, sterling weakened and corporate credit spreads jumped. And, while the initial reaction was not... 15th December 2021 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We think EM earnings expectations are too optimistic In our view, analysts’ expectations for earnings across the emerging world over the next couple of years generally look a bit optimistic. And, since we don’t expect a major increase in valuations, we... 14th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US REITs may outperform ordinary US equities The recent resilience of US real estate investment trusts (REITs) seems to reflect both easing concerns about the Omicron variant and a net decline in long-dated Treasury yields. Although we expect... 13th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the “narrowing” of the US stock market While the recent “narrowing” of major US equity indices is being interpreted by some as a sign of their impending collapse, the former hasn’t always been followed soon after by the latter. We suspect... 13th December 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Diverging monetary policies may extend the USD rally Today’s US CPI data produced a relatively limited reaction in the US dollar, which is set to end the week a bit weaker against most major currencies. Attention now turns to the 17(!) central bank... 10th December 2021 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Peak inflation and the bond market Although we think US inflation will fall back sharply over the next year, we expect long-term Treasury yields to rise further. 10th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Omicron not yet swaying EM central banks The latest EM central bank meetings confirmed that policymakers in Emerging Europe and Latin America are still focused on high and rising inflation, rather than any downside risk to the economic... 10th December 2021 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Is US households’ voracious appetite for equities sated? US households and nonprofit organizations (NPO) lost their appetite for equities last quarter. If they don’t get it back, it may not augur well for the stock market. 10th December 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update The Fed and the Treasury yield curve We now expect the Treasury yield curve to flatten further over the next couple of years but think that, in contrast with recent developments, this will happen alongside rising long-term yields. 9th December 2021 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Untangling the effect of Omicron, the Fed, and China easing Three recent developments – the emergence of the Omicron variant, the Fed’s signal that it may further accelerate the pace of policy normalisation, and China’s move towards policy easing – have... 9th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the rebound in the Brazilian real to be short-lived While the real has strengthened against the US dollar following a further 150bp hike from Brazil’s central bank yesterday, we doubt that there will be a sustained rebound. 9th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily New German government may affect BTPs more than Bunds We think the new German Government will not have a significant impact on the outlook for German Bunds. But at the margin, the uncertainty surrounding its stance in the upcoming negotiations on reforms... 8th December 2021 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of recent developments in China We doubt that recent signs of policy easing in China are a precursor to a sharp rebound in either credit growth or the country’s economy. That in turn informs our forecast that government bond yields... 7th December 2021 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: five key questions (and answers) This Update answers some of the most common questions that we have received from clients during Turkey’s recent turmoil. In short, the economic fallout doesn’t look like it will be as bad as it was... 7th December 2021 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Turkey and frontiers in the firing line The dramatic slump in the Turkish lira over the past month once again leaves the currency firmly in crisis territory. One crumb of comfort is that Turkish banks are in a better position to cope with... 7th December 2021 · 6 mins read
