Latin America Economic Outlook High commodity prices won’t lift all boats The surge in commodity prices will drive stronger regional growth than the consensus expects this year, but not all economies in Latin America will benefit. While Brazil and Colombia will see a terms... 21st April 2022 · 26 mins read
EM Valuations Monitor We think EM valuations will weather Fed tightening We don’t expect ongoing tightening by the Federal Reserve will see the valuations of emerging market equities or bonds plunge, even if they are unlikely to rebound much either. 21st April 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yen’s drop and intervention chatter While it has stabilised today, the ~10% depreciation of the Japanese yen over the past month or so is extraordinary. With some policymakers now hinting at FX intervention to stem the currency’s slide... 20th April 2022 · 6 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation won’t stop the Fed While we are confident that inflation will fall back sharply in the second half of this year, that will not stop the Fed delivering a series of 50bp rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. Although... 20th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Aussie and Kiwi to fall back as tightening cycles underwhelm The Aussie and the Kiwi have been amongst the best performing G10 currencies against the US dollar so far this year but, while we expect both to remain resilient in 2022, we eventually expect them to... 20th April 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Two key market implications of China’s economic slowdown Growing evidence of slowing economic growth in China suggests to us that government bond yields there will continue to fall, and that the renminbi will – eventually – follow suit. 19th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Slightly dovish ECB unlikely to keep EZ bond yields from rising While the ECB sounded a bit more dovish than might have been expected at its meeting today, we still think that it will proceed with policy normalisation. This underpins our forecast for the yields of... 14th April 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar grinds higher in line with US Treasury yields The US dollar continued to edge higher against most major currencies, with the DXY index (and 10-year US Treasury yields) reaching a new high for the year. The renewed rise in Treasury yields today... 14th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Focus Peak in the 10-year Treasury yield may be some way off An analysis of the behaviour of the yield of 10-year US Treasuries during the eight major Fed tightening cycles since the 1970s suggests to us that the current sell-off in long-dated US government... 14th April 2022 · 16 mins read
Latin America Economics Update We expect the Brazilian real to reverse some of its gains The sharp rally in the Brazilian real against the US dollar since the start of the year has shown tentative signs of ending, and we think that it will weaken a bit through the end of 2022. In view of... 14th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily RBNZ: A kiwi in a coalmine? While today’s 50bp policy rate hikes from the RBNZ and the Bank of Canada point to the aggressiveness of the global monetary tightening cycle now underway, the market reaction to their announcements... 13th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily We think Treasury yields will rise again even as inflation eases While we think US inflation peaked in March, we still expect long-term Treasury yields to grind higher over the rest of 2022. 12th April 2022 · 5 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Relative equity valuations amid a bond market tantrum We suspect the sectors of the equity market where valuations are the lowest will continue to weather the storm of rising bond yields a bit better than others. Drop-In (13 th April, 16:00 SGT/09:00 BST... 12th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the case for Japanese equities The valuations of mid- and large-cap equities in Japan have become even more attractive compared to those of their US counterparts following a further period of substantial underperformance in common... 12th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Boost to US equities from earnings expectations may soon fade Even if the US earnings season – which gets underway this week – reveals decent growth in profits, we doubt that expectations for earnings will continue to be revised higher. This informs our forecast... 11th April 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Le Pen & sanction risk put euro under more pressure The US dollar has risen across the board this week as the Fed’s hawkish message on “quantitative tightening”, renewed sanction risks in Europe, and the polling shift in favour of far-right candidate... 8th April 2022 · 8 mins read
