Capital Daily We suspect US big tech will remain under pressure We think that there is plenty of scope for US “big tech” in general to stay under pressure, given the prospects for TIPS and the potential for future earnings to fall short of expectations. 27th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Productivity rebound to offset stronger wage growth The further fall in the unemployment rate in March, to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, raises the risk that a sharp acceleration in wage growth will exacerbate inflationary pressures, at a time when... 27th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Relative asset performance after inflation has peaked Although the fortunes of major assets have varied after high inflation in the US has peaked, we still think the historical evidence may offer clues to their relative performance in the coming years. 27th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Under pressure from weaker euro-zone growth The higher prevalence of renewables in the energy mixes than in most of Europe means the squeeze on incomes from higher gas prices will be less acute in Switzerland and the Nordics, and Norway even... 27th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily China’s restrictions add extra turbulence for global markets More inflation from supply chain pressures owing to lockdowns in China could make equity and bond markets more turbulent. 26th April 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Rates to rise to 3.00% to rein in price expectations Even though a further surge in CPI inflation to a 40-year high of 10% in October will take the economy to the brink of recession, we think the Bank of England will raise interest rates from 0.75% now... 26th April 2022 · 27 mins read
Japan Economics Update BoJ to widen 10-year yield tolerance band further With US Treasury yields set to keep rising over the coming year, it will become even more difficult for the Bank of Japan to defend its target for 10-year JGB yields. While we don’t expect the Bank to... 26th April 2022 · 4 mins read
China Economic Outlook No quick fix this time China’s economy rebounded sharply from the initial COVID-19 outbreak. The recovery will be slower and more muted this time, even if the ongoing COVID outbreak is successfully quashed, as less policy... 26th April 2022 · 21 mins read
Capital Daily We do not expect a swift rebound in US equities Although the further dip in the S&P 500 so far today means that it has now fallen by more than 11% since its high at the start of this year, we think that the index is unlikely to recover... 25th April 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar rises further and the renminbi (finally) falls Another week of broad-based appreciation has seen the US dollar edge higher even as US bond yields have stalled. Instead, it is the sell-off in equity markets over the past couple of days which has... 22nd April 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Rising yields may not save financial sector equities Financial sector equities have sold off in line with the broader market over the past two days. And even if the 10-year US Treasury yields resume their rise as we suspect, that may not give as much of... 22nd April 2022 · 7 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Brazil’s election race heats up Brazil’s presidential election race has started to take centre stage as incumbent Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap in the polls with front-runner Lula. Investors’ concerns about a shift to looser... 22nd April 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Slim chance of another 2000s-style boom in EM equities We think that a period of sustained outperformance from emerging market equities relative to those in developed markets – like that which accompanied the last big bull run in commodities in the 2000s... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update What the evolving monetary policy outlook means for bonds This Update presents our revised forecasts for the yields of developed market (DM) long-term government bonds, in light of recent market moves and changes to our expectations for monetary policy. 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics The yen’s depreciation has further to run We think the yen will drop even further as policy divergence widens. We now forecast USD/JPY to reach 140 by the end of this year, before dropping back as the Fed takes its foot off the gas in 2023... 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone bond markets and the French election Even if incumbent President Macron wins France’s upcoming presidential election, we expect that the yields of French government bonds will rise further, and that the yield spreads of euro-zone... 21st April 2022 · 5 mins read
