Asset Allocation Update Case for US equity underperformance is looking strong Although mid- and large-cap equities have fared better in the US than the rest of the developed world in most years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the chances of it happening in... 10th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We expect yields to support further USD strength before long Although the recent surge in US government bond yields has made little impact on the US dollar, which has been broadly flat over the past month or so, we still think that widening yield differentials... 10th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We think the post-payrolls sell-off in Treasuries will continue Even though investors appear to have raised their expectations for Fed rate hikes following the latest US employment report, we think they may still be underestimating how far the federal funds rate... 7th January 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Slow start to 2022 for FX markets ahead of US inflation Today’s US non-farm payrolls report had little impact on currency markets, with the dollar set to end the week broadly unchanged against most other currencies. This extends a pattern of low volatility... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening may limit gains in US equities While we don’t think the stock market’s falls this week mark the start of a sustained rout, we do expect Fed tightening to curb the upside for mid- and large-cap US equities over the next couple of... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the US dollar’s prospects in 2022 Although we wouldn’t be surprised if the rally in the US dollar paused in the short term, we still expect the relative strength of the economic recovery in the US and monetary tightening there to push... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Rising yields and high valuations may limit gains in US stocks Although we do not think that US equities will continue to fall sharply, we nonetheless forecast that their gains over the next couple of years will fall well short of those in 2021. 6th January 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Six key calls and three risks for the UK in 2022 Our new forecasts for 2022 envisage CPI inflation rising further than most expect to a peak of 7% and the Bank of England raising interest rates quicker, from 0.25% now to 1.25% by the end of the year... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect higher US yields to lead to more weakness in the yen The Japanese yen fell to a 5-year low against the US dollar earlier this week, following a sharp rise in US Treasury yields. While the yen has rebounded slightly since then, we think that further... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update Key calls for the euro-zone in 2022 We think euro-zone GDP growth will be lower than most anticipate this year, at around 3.5%, while inflation will come down towards 2% by year-end allowing the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged and... 5th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Valuations and rising yields more worrisome than Omicron After a somewhat turbulent end to 2021, most “risky” assets have started the new year on the front foot and “safe” government bond yields have risen sharply. Provided that concerns about the pandemic... 4th January 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Restrictions to weigh on first-quarter GDP growth The economy gained momentum at the start of the fourth quarter and we have revised up our forecast for fourth-quarter GDP growth to 5.5% annualised, from 4.0%. Given the rapidly deteriorating... 23rd December 2021 · 8 mins read
EM Markets Chart Pack We think PBOC easing will push down CGB yields While many central banks have continued to tighten monetary policy over the past month, the People’s Bank of China has gone in the opposite direction. We think the easing cycle in China has further to... 22nd December 2021 · 8 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Omicron may hinder already weakening recoveries Recoveries across Latin America have lost momentum in Q4 even though, unlike in other regions such as Europe, new COVID-19 cases generally remain low and containment measures are still light-touch at... 22nd December 2021 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of a dismal year for EM equities Even if virus concerns abate, we doubt that 2022 will see a spectacular turnaround for emerging market equities. 21st December 2021 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We doubt that 2022-23 will be as rewarding as 2021 2021 is on course to be a relatively good year for most investors. Admittedly, it has not been entirely without its casualties. Equities in China and much of Latin America, for example, have struggled... 21st December 2021 · 11 mins read
