Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily The US dollar, risk sentiment, and high-beta currencies Even if the current rout in the US stock market worsened and caused the Fed to reassess how much additional monetary tightening is necessary, we suspect the US dollar would stay strong amid heightened... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weaker economy yet to dent price expectations The weaker economic outlook triggered by the surge in CPI inflation to a 30-year high of 7.0% in March has yet to put a dent in businesses own expectations for their selling prices. The Bank of... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation after inflation has peaked Although we suspect that inflation in the US has now peaked, we don’t think that this will prevent either long-dated Treasury yields from rising again or the stock market there from coming under... 10th May 2022 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily Growth might underperform value for a while yet While US equities have fallen across the board today, “growth” stocks have continued to fare even worse than their “value” peers. We think that this underperformance has further to run, given that the... 9th May 2022 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update RBI intervention will support the rupee The Indian rupee hit a record low against the US dollar today, but the big picture is that RBI intervention has helped it hold up better than most EM currencies recently. Given that the RBI has ample... 9th May 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The USD (and FOMC) is unlikely to change course The US dollar looks set to eke out small gains against most currencies this week as US bond yields rose further and equities whipsawed. While the net effect of the FOMC’s policy announcement and today... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Three market trends as payrolls clear the Fed to press ahead We expect three of the major trends in markets this week – higher long-dated US Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar, and faltering equity markets – to continue for a while yet. 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect corporate bond spreads to rise a bit more We expect concerns about global economic growth and monetary policy tightening to push up the spreads of developed market corporate bonds a bit further over the coming year. Markets Drop-In (11 th May... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics EUR/USD: The case for parity We think the euro will eventually weaken further, falling to parity against the US dollar, as the euro-zone economy falters, the terms of trade shock from higher energy prices feeds through, and the... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Lessons for markets from the rapid 1994/95 rate hikes The struggles of both bonds and equities during the Fed’s rapid hiking cycle of 1994/95 may provide a warning to investors today. Markets Drop-In (11 th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed, the BoE & the outlook for DM government bonds The yields of 10-year government bond yields in the US and the UK have already more than reversed their initial falls following the Fed’s and the Bank of England’s policy announcements and we think... 5th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update What this week’s Fed decisions mean for markets With more monetary tightening to come from the Fed, we think the rise in Treasury yields has further to run and that equities will continue to struggle. Markets Drop-In (11 th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira stability may give way to further pronounced weakness We think that the surprising stability of the Turkish lira so far this year will not last much longer and we forecast it to weaken against the dollar over the coming months, from ~14.8/$ now to 18/$... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
