Emerging Europe Economics Update A closer look at Ukraine’s macro vulnerabilities Ukraine’s economy as a whole is in a better position to weather significant capital flight and sharp falls in the hryvnia than at any point in the past decade. But even so, there are key pockets of... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The strength in EM commodity currencies may prove fleeting Despite their strong start to 2022, we think that emerging market commodity currencies will struggle over the next couple of years as commodity prices fall back from their current high levels. That... 16th February 2022 · 3 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary tightening may continue to limit risky assets’ gains Even if tensions between Russia and Ukraine abated, we wouldn’t expect risky assets to gain all that much over the rest of this year and next, mainly because we think ongoing monetary tightening would... 16th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the outlook for German and Swiss government bonds We expect a gap between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to re-emerge as policy support is withdrawn more quickly by the ECB than by the SNB. 15th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recapping the Russia-Ukraine crisis Tensions between Russia and the West have intensified and rattled global financial markets. Amidst the uncertain situation, this Update brings together some of the key implications of the crisis for... 15th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Risky assets caught between a rock and a hard place Two unfamiliar and (largely) unrelated fears are stalking financial markets: the prospect of aggressive policy tightening from major central banks, and the apparent risk of a war between Russia and... 14th February 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar stays dormant amid surging short-term yields The US dollar seems set to end the week broadly unchanged against most major currencies despite a favourable shift in government bond yield differentials. While we suspect there is limited scope for a... 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect EM LC government bonds to be a mixed bag We think that yields of 10-year emerging market local-currency government bonds may, in general, increase by more in Asia than in other regions by end-2023, in contrast with the pattern over the past... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The Treasury yield curve: 1994 up front, 2015 in the back? We think long-term Treasury yields will rise only gradually even if the Fed hikes rates at a rapid clip. 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the case for a stronger dollar Although last week’s hawkish surprises from the ECB and the Bank of England weaken the case for further US dollar appreciation against the euro, sterling, and other European currencies, we are... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Commodities & US equities: 1970s or mid-2010s? We suspect that the pattern of returns from commodities and US equities over the next few years will more closely resemble that in 2014-15 – positive from the US stock market, negative from... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Some more tweaks to our DM bond yield forecasts We continue to expect 10-year government bond yields across developed markets to rise over the next few years. But given some upward revisions to our policy rate forecasts for the euro-zone, Australia... 11th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly BoJ sets its stall out, three more weeks of restrictions The Bank of Japan’s first unlimited fixed rate auction in three-and-a-half years is likely to send a strong signal to investors that +0.25% is right now a clear line in the sand for 10-year JGB yields... 11th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Long Run Economic Outlook Higher inflation to persist and real rates stay negative Recent developments have supported our view that the pandemic will not do much permanent damage to the level of GDP in most countries, especially developed markets. Nonetheless, it will accelerate... 10th February 2022 · 1 hr, 8 mins read
Capital Daily Treasuries may keep struggling even after inflation peaks The longer inflation in the US stays high, the more it is likely to affect investors’ expectations. That is another reason why long-term Treasury yields might not drop back quickly even if inflation... 10th February 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Relative equity performance and the US dollar Although a major drop in US equities poses a key downside risk to our view that the US dollar will rise, we doubt the slight underperformance of US equities relative to global equities that we... 10th February 2022 · 4 mins read
