Capital Daily Global markets look nervous, but not panicked (yet) A few cracks have begun to emerge in global financial markets which, until recently, seemed to be taking Russia’s invasion of Ukraine broadly in their stride. 2nd March 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Path to sustained rally in DM government bonds is narrow While the war in Ukraine has finally triggered a big drop in developed market sovereign bond yields today, we think the likely inflationary impact of the war limits the scope for a sustained rally in... 1st March 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Russia’s financial markets staring into the abyss New sanctions on Russia have led to a sharp plunge in the ruble, and an effective freeze of most of the country’s financial markets. We think that the outlook now depends mainly on the extent to which... 28th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Making sense of the equity market’s resilience so far Aside from Russia, most major global financial markets have, perhaps surprisingly, taken the invasion of Ukraine largely in their stride. Given the huge uncertainty around the conflict and the... 28th February 2022 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack Renminbi strength a headache for the PBOC As well as a geopolitical quagmire for China’s leadership, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become a headache for the PBOC. It has been signalling its dissatisfaction with the strength of the renminbi... 28th February 2022 · 12 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Putin’s war scrambles markets & sends ruble tumbling The Russian invasion of Ukraine early on Thursday morning has, aside from the ruble, so far made only limited impact on currency markets. The US dollar and other safe havens rose sharply on news of... 25th February 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Russia-Ukraine and the market fallout: the story so far After a volatile 48 hours in financial markets, this Capital Daily highlights the key lessons from the market fallout since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine. A few points are worth stressing, in... 25th February 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update How the Russia-Ukraine war is shaking up the markets outlook Amid all the volatility in global markets during the Russia-Ukraine conflict so far, we think there are several key lessons we can draw from the relative performance of bonds, equities and currencies... 25th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack War in Europe Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine has caused turmoil in financial markets across the region. Western nations have imposed sanctions on Russia, including targeting some of its largest banks and... 25th February 2022 · 15 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Safe-haven franc not a dire concern for the SNB The divergence between gold prices and the Swiss franc/euro cross rate in the hours after the start of the invasion of Ukraine suggests to us that the SNB intervened to limit the sharp rise in the... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Global markets in the fog of war Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent global financial markets into a tailspin. While the war is still in its early stages, there are a few observations worth making on the impact on financial markets... 24th February 2022 · 5 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Fresh headwinds appear The easing of Omicron waves, and loosening of restrictions, across Latin America will have given a lift to recoveries in recent weeks, but the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine crisis presents a fresh... 24th February 2022 · 16 mins read
UK Markets Markets right to bet on interest rates peaking at 2.00% Our forecast that lingering price pressures will prompt the Bank of England to raise interest rates from 0.50% now to a peak of 2.00% next year suggests there is little scope for market interest rate... 24th February 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily Oil prices, inflation compensation & Treasuries Although the two have often moved in tandem, we think Treasury yields will resume their rise even if oil prices fall back. 23rd February 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Could the US stock market rely on a “Powell Put”? While the mood seems to have improved a little at the time of writing, the S&P 500 closed yesterday more than 10% lower than its recent peak at the start of the year, satisfying the criteria for a... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US yield curve is casting doubt on our equity vs. bond call Our view that the US stock market will outperform Treasuries again this year is being called into question by a flattening of the yield curve. Nonetheless, we are not anticipating that it will invert... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
