UK Economics The influence of the war on the UK economy The UK is not as exposed to the economic consequences of the war in Ukraine as the rest of Europe. Even so, in response to the surge in global commodity prices caused by the war we have dramatically... 9th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update War, sanctions, and the resilience of the S&P 500 The US stock market has so far held up fairly well despite the Russia-Ukraine war. We think it will probably manage to make small gains over the rest of the year, although there are clear downside... 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Assessing the implications of a joint EU fiscal response to the war We doubt that news that the EU may fund increases in energy and defence spending on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war through joint debt issuance will mark a turnaround for the euro and euro-zone... 8th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the recent outperformance of US equities The war in Ukraine has challenged our view that US equities will underperform those in other developed markets over the next few years. We are not yet ready to abandon this view while the outlook is... 8th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Oil-supply disruptions pose a threat to the US stock market History suggests that large disruptions to oil supply, which a proposed ban on imports of Russia’s oil would probably represent, could weigh heavily on the US stock market. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST... 7th March 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Flattening gilt yield curve another signal of weaker growth The 10-year/2-year gilt yield curve is closer to inverting than at any point since March 2020, supporting our view that GDP growth will slow this year. And while a yield curve inversion isn’t a good... 7th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily War concerns may not sustain the rally in US Treasuries The February US employment report released earlier today serves as a reminder of the current strength of the US economy and, in our view, keeps the Fed’s policy tightening plans on track. So, although... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap War in Ukraine creating new trends in FX markets The war in Ukraine has generated two clear effects in FX markets: the European currencies most immediately exposed to the war and its economic fallout have fallen against the US dollar, while most... 4th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update How the war in Ukraine is challenging our views This Update discusses three ways in which the outbreak of war in Ukraine has called into question our asset allocation views. While the situation is fluid and the outlook especially uncertain, it also... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Ukraine war stokes inflation, reduces growth The war in Ukraine has prompted us to revise our forecasts for euro-zone GDP, inflation and monetary policy. Russia’s downturn in 2015 had no obvious impact on euro-zone GDP and Russia has become less... 4th March 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Russia plunges into economic & financial turmoil Russia has fallen into chaos and we’ll get a clearer sense next week of the impact that sanctions are having on the economy. A dollar bond repayment by Gazprom on Monday will be a litmus test of the... 4th March 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack The Russia-Ukraine war and currency markets The dollar has generally strengthened since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, while European currencies have generally been the hardest hit by the war. But unlike in most risk-off episodes, the currencies... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Lessons from past conflicts and crises The onset of other major conflicts and military-related crises have often seen global equity indices tumble, while moves in developed market government bond yields have depended on how energy prices... 4th March 2022 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Some signs of strains in markets but no panic yet In light of the growing economic and financial fallout from the war in Ukraine, this publication takes stock of the various signs of stress across the global financial system. We intend to update the... 3rd March 2022 · 9 mins read
Bonds & Equities War-induced rally in DM bonds may not be sustained While the war in Ukraine may well push down the yields of long-dated developed market government bonds further in the near term, we think that a sustained rally in bonds is unlikely unless the war... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Recent falls in gilt yields likely to prove short-lived While gilt yields could drop further if the war in Ukraine escalates much further and/or it becomes clear that it is significantly reducing economic activity in the UK, at the moment we think gilt... 2nd March 2022 · 4 mins read
