Global Markets Update Tweaking our forecasts for US Treasury yields We think the Fed’s tightening cycle will lead to the 10-year Treasury yield ending this year and next a bit higher than we had previously anticipated, although we still expect it to rise only... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Lower valuations may help European equities outperform Their net fall since the invasion of Ukraine means the valuations of European equities are now even lower relative to those of US stocks. While valuations have a mixed track record at predicting... 17th March 2022 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Ukraine war heightens inflation and external risks The surge in commodity prices as a result of the war in Ukraine will have several repercussions for India’s economy. As a major net commodity importer, its terms of trade will deteriorate and we think... 17th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily We think rising US bond yields will continue to weaken the yen The yen has been steadily weakening over recent months even during “risk-off” periods in markets, and we think that it will fall further against the US dollar over the next year or two. 16th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Three ways the war has changed the markets outlook Some of the effects of the war on markets have begun to unwind in recent days, but we think a few of the changes it has brought about will last even if the mood in markets continues to improve. In... 16th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to the renminbi appear to be growing With several important factors pushing in the same direction, we continue to think that the renminbi will depreciate further against the US dollar over the remainder of this year. 15th March 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update Assessing the commodity terms of trade shock in FX markets Although they have fallen back over the past week, we expect the prices of most commodities to remain elevated relative to their recent past. We will be revising our currency forecasts to reflect... 15th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think US equities could continue to underperform Today’s price action reinforces our view that there is plenty of scope for mid- and large-cap equities in the US to underperform those in the rest of the developed world further if there is a de... 14th March 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Some signs of stabilisation amid fallout from the war The war in Ukraine continues to dominate both the news headlines and financial markets. While market conditions have remained very volatile, this week has seen a degree of stabilisation of risk... 11th March 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Oil embargoes and asset returns: lessons from 1973-74 If the Russia-Ukraine war escalated, we would expect some of the recent patterns in relative asset market performance to continue to echo those during the 1973-74 oil crisis. That said, we wouldn’t... 11th March 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily China’s equity market, decoupling, and the Russia-Ukraine war Even if a repeat of their dismal performance in 2021 is unlikely, we don’t expect a big rebound in China’s equities this year. 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update EZ corporate & sovereign spreads may converge again Although a gap between euro-zone corporate and peripheral sovereign spreads opened up after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, it has begun to close recently and we think that it will shrink further... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Assessing the risks to the S&P 500 from high oil prices The war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russian oil trade have increased oil prices by as much as 40% so far this year, but we don’t think higher energy costs will derail the US stock market as they might... 11th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We expect the euro to remain under pressure this year While the ECB sounded less willing than we (and investors) had anticipated to delay plans for policy normalisation on the back of the Russia-Ukraine war, we still think that monetary policy divergence... 10th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics ECB FX intervention is unlikely There has been some discussion of possible FX intervention by the ECB to support the euro, but there is next to no chance of that being announced at today’s press conference, and unless the single... 10th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of changing 10-year UST inflation compensation While US 10-year inflation compensation has dropped back today in the wake of a pull-back in the price of oil, the bigger picture is that it had previously surged this week to its highest level this... 9th March 2022 · 7 mins read
