Asia Chart Pack Tightening cycles to be gradual Central banks across the region have recently turned more hawkish. Over the past month or so, policymakers in Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan have all tightened policy... 29th April 2022 · 14 mins read
China Chart Pack China will barely grow in dollar terms this year President Xi has reportedly told officials to ensure that China’s real GDP growth exceeds that of the US this year. This is likely to happen on paper. The published data usually confirm that growth... 29th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Global Markets Outlook Further pain may still be in store for global markets We think the rises in global government bond yields – and falls in equity prices – have not run their course yet. Yields have typically peaked only shortly before the ends of central bank tightening... 29th April 2022 · 29 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone economy struggling, euro heading to parity Data released this week showed that the euro-zone economy eked out a small expansion in Q1, but we think that it will contract in Q2. The weak economic outlook combined with the ECB's likely more... 29th April 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets too sanguine on interest rates Our new forecasts that inflation will stay higher for longer and that the labour market will remain tight into 2023 suggests that Bank Rate will rise to a peak of 3.00% next year rather than the peak... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Growth to underwhelm as inflation surges Lockdowns in China and spillovers from the war in Ukraine will slow the EM recovery and growth is likely to be weaker than most expect. Recession risks are rising in Emerging Europe in particular. On... 28th April 2022 · 28 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the yen’s new lows We wouldn’t be surprised if the yen fell further against most major currencies but doubt this would give the country’s equity market a relative boost, in common-currency terms at least. 28th April 2022 · 7 mins read
India Chart Pack Monetary conditions tighten The key policy development this month was the introduction of a new Standing Deposit Facility, through which the RBI will drain excess banking sector liquidity. The SDF now provides the floor for the... 28th April 2022 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Inflation risks mount as commodity prices surge Surging commodity prices have pushed up inflation across the region and we expect inflation to hit fresh multi-year highs in the coming months. A loss of Russian gas supplies should not lead to... 28th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Africa Chart Pack Fiscal positions largely going from worse to bad Fiscal positions across Sub-Saharan Africa have been a persistent source of concern since the onset of the pandemic – and in some cases, even before. And the commodity price moves resulting from the... 28th April 2022 · 10 mins read
Latin America Chart Pack Food inflation a growing concern Inflation continues to march higher in Latin America, most recently driven by surging food prices owing to poor domestic weather conditions and rising global agricultural prices. This has led to... 27th April 2022 · 11 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect US big tech will remain under pressure We think that there is plenty of scope for US “big tech” in general to stay under pressure, given the prospects for TIPS and the potential for future earnings to fall short of expectations. 27th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Productivity rebound to offset stronger wage growth The further fall in the unemployment rate in March, to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, raises the risk that a sharp acceleration in wage growth will exacerbate inflationary pressures, at a time when... 27th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Relative asset performance after inflation has peaked Although the fortunes of major assets have varied after high inflation in the US has peaked, we still think the historical evidence may offer clues to their relative performance in the coming years. 27th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook Under pressure from weaker euro-zone growth The higher prevalence of renewables in the energy mixes than in most of Europe means the squeeze on incomes from higher gas prices will be less acute in Switzerland and the Nordics, and Norway even... 27th April 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily China’s restrictions add extra turbulence for global markets More inflation from supply chain pressures owing to lockdowns in China could make equity and bond markets more turbulent. 26th April 2022 · 6 mins read
