India Economics Update RBI intervention will support the rupee The Indian rupee hit a record low against the US dollar today, but the big picture is that RBI intervention has helped it hold up better than most EM currencies recently. Given that the RBI has ample... 9th May 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The USD (and FOMC) is unlikely to change course The US dollar looks set to eke out small gains against most currencies this week as US bond yields rose further and equities whipsawed. While the net effect of the FOMC’s policy announcement and today... 6th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Three market trends as payrolls clear the Fed to press ahead We expect three of the major trends in markets this week – higher long-dated US Treasury yields, a stronger US dollar, and faltering equity markets – to continue for a while yet. 6th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update We expect corporate bond spreads to rise a bit more We expect concerns about global economic growth and monetary policy tightening to push up the spreads of developed market corporate bonds a bit further over the coming year. Markets Drop-In (11 th May... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics EUR/USD: The case for parity We think the euro will eventually weaken further, falling to parity against the US dollar, as the euro-zone economy falters, the terms of trade shock from higher energy prices feeds through, and the... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Lessons for markets from the rapid 1994/95 rate hikes The struggles of both bonds and equities during the Fed’s rapid hiking cycle of 1994/95 may provide a warning to investors today. Markets Drop-In (11 th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST): We’re discussing our... 6th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What a strong dollar means for EMs While a stronger dollar is generally regarded as a headwind for EMs, we think it will only be a minor one for most major EMs, particularly compared with the headwinds from weakness in China... 6th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily The Fed, the BoE & the outlook for DM government bonds The yields of 10-year government bond yields in the US and the UK have already more than reversed their initial falls following the Fed’s and the Bank of England’s policy announcements and we think... 5th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update What this week’s Fed decisions mean for markets With more monetary tightening to come from the Fed, we think the rise in Treasury yields has further to run and that equities will continue to struggle. Markets Drop-In (11 th May, 10:00 EDT/15:00 BST... 5th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Inflation becoming more entrenched The latest data suggest that the increase in inflation is becoming more broad-based and persistent. While headline inflation only edged up in April, the core measure jumped to 3.5%. A range of... 5th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira stability may give way to further pronounced weakness We think that the surprising stability of the Turkish lira so far this year will not last much longer and we forecast it to weaken against the dollar over the coming months, from ~14.8/$ now to 18/$... 5th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Warnings for the US equity market from 1994 The US equity market struggled to make much ground during the rapid rate hikes of 1994/95, and there is reason to think it might do worse this time around if the Federal Reserve continues to tighten... 4th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Why inflation could drag down stock market multiples further We don’t subscribe to the view that the current high level of inflation in the US justifies a very big drop in its stock market. Nonetheless, we do think its valuation looks a bit high even if... 3rd May 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar surge continues ahead of the FOMC & payrolls The US dollar rose for a third week in a row, reaching its strongest level since early 2017 as the growing policy divergence between the major Asian central banks and the rest of the world as well as... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Stagflation may prolong the woes of euro-zone financial markets The latest euro-zone economic data reinforce our view that the region is headed for a year of stagflation; against this backdrop we expect that euro-zone assets and the euro will struggle over the... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Outlook The next stage of the dollar bull market The combination of aggressive tightening from the Fed and worsening risk appetite has driven the dollar to its strongest level, in aggregate, since the early 2000s. While the greenback looks due a... 29th April 2022 · 23 mins read
