UK Markets Outlook Pound to plumb new depths Our forecast that the energy crisis will push the euro-zone and UK economies into recession while the US gets away with a milder slowdown suggests that the euro and the pound will weaken further... 31st August 2022 · 13 mins read
Capital Daily S&P 500 may fall again even if Treasury yields stabilise We suspect that the broad patterns seen in US markets since Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech , i.e. little change in long-dated Treasury yields and lower equities, will persist over the... 30th August 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update We see little chance of a GFC-style collapse in US REITs While we think that US REITs have further to fall over the rest of this year, we doubt that they will fare nearly as badly as they did during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), nor underperform... 30th August 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Hawkish Powell pushes the US dollar towards fresh highs Th US dollar seems set to end the week a bit higher against most major currencies after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole reinforced the FOMC’s recent pushback against an early “pivot” sent... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Focus A deep dive into the US stock market’s relative performance In this Focus, we make the case that mid-and large-cap equities in the US will not, in general, continue to outperform those in other developed markets, despite the fact that such outperformance has... 26th August 2022 · 25 mins read
Capital Daily Hawkish Fed may still be a headwind for bonds and stocks With the Fed seemingly still in a hawkish mood, we don’t expect a big rally in Treasuries or equities until next year. 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
FX Markets Update REERs suggests need for further adjustment in some EMs While EM real effective exchange rates have held up better than their nominal exchange rates against the dollar since 2021, we think there are some economies where appreciations look stretched, and... 26th August 2022 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Surging capital inflows unlikely to be sustained Foreigners’ net purchases of Indian equities have surged to near record levels in recent weeks, helping to fuel the strong rally in the Sensex. We doubt that this can be sustained as global policy... 26th August 2022 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack We think risky assets will struggle as optimism fades The rebound in the prices of “risky” assets has stalled recently and we expect it to go into reverse over the rest of this year as economic growth in many major DMs disappoints and appetite for risk... 26th August 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Rebound in EZ bonds unlikely to last, especially in the periphery While we doubt that today’s drop in euro-zone government bond yields will be sustained, we don’t expect “core” yields to increase much from here. In contrast, we still forecast “peripheral” yields to... 25th August 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect real yields to remain a drag on European currencies A shift in implied real yield gaps between the US and some other developed markets (DMs) have underpinned the latest rise in the greenback. We think the ongoing energy crisis in Europe means that... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update German-Swiss bond yield spread may widen further We expect the spread between the yields of 10-year German and Swiss government bonds to widen further over the remainder of this year. In view of the wider interest, we are also sending this Global... 25th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt: the costs and benefits of a weaker pound We think that the Egyptian pound needs to fall a lot further which, in the near-term, will push up inflation and harm the sovereign debt position. But it will be key to boosting Egypt’s external... 25th August 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update What rate cuts may mean for China’s financial assets We expect the PBOC to follow its recent policy rate cuts with further easing over the months ahead. This informs our decision to lower our forecasts for China’s 10-year government bond yield. But we... 24th August 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Defensive stock market sectors may continue to outperform Defensive sectors of the S&P 500 have outperformed during its recent slump, a trend which we generally expect to continue. While the S&P 500 has opened broadly flat today, the index has fallen by ~4%... 24th August 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EUR/USD parity may become par for the course With the key EUR/USD rate again trading below the symbolic parity level, we think it looks increasingly probable that the euro-zone’s worsening economic woes will lead to a prolonged period of euro... 23rd August 2022 · 7 mins read
