Capital Daily Weighing up the outlook for the S&P 500 History suggests the S&P 500 might recover quite quickly once it reaches its trough, but that may be a way off yet and still-rosy earnings expectations could be an obstacle. 13th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings might not bail out the S&P 500 The S&P 500 might continue to struggle if, as we expect, slowing economic growth and rising labour costs causes corporate profits to grow by less than most anticipate. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Gas supplies at risk, CNB shake-up, Turkey FX restrictions Russia’s sanctions on European energy companies and the closure of the Sokhranivka transit point in Ukraine this week are a sign that the risk of energy supply disruptions in Central and Eastern... 13th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update Risk of a surge in E-Z peripheral spreads has risen While our central forecast remains that euro-zone “peripheral” spreads will rise only a bit between now and the end of 2022, we think that the risk of a significant increase in spreads has risen. 13th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack High inflation is hurting real spending Recent data have shown the firmest evidence yet that high inflation is damaging real consumer spending in advanced economies. Real retail sales fell in the US, UK, and euro-zone in March, while... 13th May 2022 · 14 mins read
FX Markets Update CEE currencies face external and domestic headwinds We think that currencies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will depreciate further against the euro over the rest of this year. Within the region, we anticipate that the koruna will continue to... 12th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt the drop in Gilt yields and sterling will persist We doubt that the recent fall in the yield of 10-year Gilts will continue. Indeed, we expect it to rebound to a significantly higher level than its recent peak over the next year or so. We also think... 12th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Long Run Returns Monitor Long Run Returns Monitor (Q2) Our Long Run Returns Monitor provides our updated long-term projected returns for major asset classes, as well as a summary of the macroeconomic forecasts which underpin them. All projections in this... 12th May 2022 · 1 min read
FX Markets Focus We expect the dollar to stay strong as the Fed tightens The trade-weighted US dollar has edged up to multi-decade highs as the Fed has started to raise its policy rate. In this Focus, we analyse past Fed tightening cycles and explain why we think the... 12th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Frontier Markets Wrap Three positive stories from frontier markets There has been plenty of doom and gloom surrounding the outlook for frontier economies over recent months, particularly Sri Lanka and Tunisia. But there are some places where we hold more upbeat views... 12th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily No sign yet that peak inflation is a watershed moment for markets So far, at least, tentative evidence of a peak in inflation in today’s US consumer price index report has not been a watershed moment for US government bonds or equities. Both Treasuries and the S&P... 11th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus EM sovereign debt: where do the risks lie? The strong dollar and spill-overs from the war in Ukraine have caused sovereign debt risks to escalate in some frontier markets. But most large EMs have far stronger public sector balance sheets... 11th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily The US dollar, risk sentiment, and high-beta currencies Even if the current rout in the US stock market worsened and caused the Fed to reassess how much additional monetary tightening is necessary, we suspect the US dollar would stay strong amid heightened... 10th May 2022 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weaker economy yet to dent price expectations The weaker economic outlook triggered by the surge in CPI inflation to a 30-year high of 7.0% in March has yet to put a dent in businesses own expectations for their selling prices. The Bank of... 10th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation after inflation has peaked Although we suspect that inflation in the US has now peaked, we don’t think that this will prevent either long-dated Treasury yields from rising again or the stock market there from coming under... 10th May 2022 · 24 mins read
Capital Daily Growth might underperform value for a while yet While US equities have fallen across the board today, “growth” stocks have continued to fare even worse than their “value” peers. We think that this underperformance has further to run, given that the... 9th May 2022 · 6 mins read
