FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar struggles despite equity sell-off After another volatile few days across financial markets, the US dollar looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. Given the renewed falls in “risky” assets, that is arguably... 20th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt consumer staples will continue to underperform “tech” We doubt the consumer staples sector, which has been hit particularly hard in the recent sell-off in the S&P 500, will continue to underperform “tech”-heavy sectors. ECB Drop-In (24 th May 10:00 ET/15... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Markets are creaking but not (yet) breaking So far, the sell-off across bond and equity markets this year has not triggered major signs of systemic risk. If that were to change, central banks would probably have to step in to prevent a... 20th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Markets and monetary policy, mounting pressure on naira Recent investor risk-off sentiment has pushed up sovereign dollar bond yields across Sub-Saharan Africa, fuelling debt risks further, and has put currencies under pressure. Central banks appear to be... 20th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the latest falls in the S&P 500 Although the S&P 500 has stabilised at the time of writing, its 4% drop yesterday has brought the index close to a bear market. We suspect there may be more pain to come for equities, even if the US... 19th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Earnings may be the next headwind for the S&P 500 Despite its struggles yesterday, we think the S&P 500 may have some way further to fall as the economy slows and more companies struggle to meet optimistic earnings expectations. Note: We’ll be... 19th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus War in Ukraine to exacerbate macro imbalances in CEE The war in Ukraine will exacerbate two key macro risks in Central and Eastern Europe this year: wage-price spirals (particularly in Poland) and widening current account deficits (particularly in... 19th May 2022 · 17 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: how will officials respond to falls in the lira? The Turkish lira has come under renewed pressure in recent weeks but interest rate hikes to shore up the currency are off the cards. Instead, further sharp and disorderly falls would most likely be... 19th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The ECB, the Fed, and the euro The hawkish tone of the latest flurry of ECB and Fed speakers suggests that, despite the recent drop in equity markets and widening of credit spreads, policymakers are determined to press ahead with... 18th May 2022 · 7 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy powering ahead The strength of the hard activity data for April refutes the recent message from financial markets that the economy is at risk of imminent recession. The solid gain in control group retail sales... 18th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Bear markets, monetary tightening and the S&P 500 The current struggles of the S&P 500 don’t have much in common with most previous “bear markets”, but we still think one is likely as the Fed presses ahead with monetary tightening. 18th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Near bear market for S&P 500 doesn’t mean it’s out of the woods The glass-half-full case for US equities is that they have already fallen about as far they do in a typical recession, so they now have plenty of upside if, as we happen to project, the US economy... 17th May 2022 · 7 mins read
Asset Allocation Update On the relative prospects for US equity REITs We expect US equity REITs to remain under pressure between now and the middle of next year, given our view of the US stock and bond markets. Nonetheless, we doubt they will underperform US equities... 17th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Some market implications of China’s lockdowns China’s slowdown could keep the renminbi under pressure, and may have gloomy implications for global markets as well. 16th May 2022 · 6 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap The dollar rally might be due a pause Despite a reversal today, the US dollar looks set to appreciate for the sixth week running as “risky” assets remain under pressure. The DXY index has had its largest six-week gain since mid-2016... 13th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Rising CPI expectations occupying minds at Riksbank Just as policymakers at the ECB are becoming more concerned about inflation expectations, the rise in expectations in Sweden is giving the Riksbank plenty to fret about too. The Bank’s preferred... 13th May 2022 · 5 mins read
