India Chart Pack Shifting policy mix The RBI kicked off its tightening cycle this month with a 40bp hike to the repo rate (to 4.40%) in an unscheduled policy announcement. The minutes to that meeting show that several MPC members are... 27th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Capital Daily Falling profit margins another potential threat to the S&P 500 Although the first estimate of US corporate profits for Q1 2022 didn’t reveal a big squeeze on margins in the nonfinancial sector, this could yet be another headwind for the US stock market: we doubt... 26th May 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation still rising With core CPI inflation still rising, the Bank of Canada has no choice but to continue hiking its policy rate “forcefully’ back toward neutral. All three of the core measures tracked by the Bank are... 26th May 2022 · 9 mins read
Global Markets Update What to make of the decline in inflation compensation We don’t expect long-term inflation compensation to continue to tumble, and think long-term government bond yields will bounce back before long. 26th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Focus Colombia election: judging the opportunities and risks Colombia’s upcoming presidential election could result in the country’s first left-wing government in recent decades, headed by Gustavo Petro. While he is unlikely to be as radical as many expect... 26th May 2022 · 17 mins read
UK Markets Outlook Stagflation stalking the markets If we are right in expecting inflationary pressure to stay strong even as the economy gets dangerously close to a recession, then the prices of gilts and UK equities will probably fall further over... 26th May 2022 · 12 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Monetary tightening stepped up A majority of central banks in the region hiked interest rates over the past month. In the Gulf, central banks raised interest rates in line with the Federal Reserve, although this won’t necessarily... 26th May 2022 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily Chinese stimulus may not save the day this time around China’s policymakers have had a busy few weeks. Between the ongoing lockdown policy, the depreciation of the renminbi, and the various fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that have been rolled out... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update Equity price falls add to headwinds to growth Recent falls in equity prices have not prompted downgrades to our global growth forecasts since the passthrough to the real economy is limited and part of the bad news has already been factored in to... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily The relationship between the US dollar and the stock market We anticipate a renewed rally in the US dollar and further declines in US equity prices over the next twelve months or so. 24th May 2022 · 5 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack More trouble may lie ahead for risky assets We think “risky” assets will continue to struggle over the next year or so, even if a recession is avoided in most major developed markets. 24th May 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Yield curve positioning after peak inflation Although Treasury yields have dropped back in recent weeks amid signs that inflation has peaked, we don’t think it makes sense to extend duration. Of course, the longer a bond’s remaining life, the... 24th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We think the peak in Treasury yields is still to come We doubt that the 10-year Treasury yield has peaked in this cycle. Admittedly, it has fallen back markedly on net over the past couple of weeks; having briefly climbed above 3.20% earlier this month... 23rd May 2022 · 5 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tweak to Yield Curve Control still on the table The Bank of Japan’s attempt to relieve pressure on the Yield Curve Control framework by offering to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year Japanese government bonds (JGBs) at yields of 0.25% for as long... 23rd May 2022 · 10 mins read
