Global Markets Update What Lula could mean for Brazil’s financial markets Investors seem to have taken the prospect of a second Lula presidency positively so far, but we suspect returns from the country’s dollar bonds and equities will disappoint over the next couple of... 3rd October 2022 · 5 mins read
China Chart Pack PBOC’s proxies ready to fight It has been five years since the People’s Bank last dipped into its own foreign exchange reserves on a significant scale to support the currency. Since then, it is widely believed that the exchange... 3rd October 2022 · 13 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Intervention stems the dollar tide for now; US payrolls ahead During yet another tumultuous week in financial markets, the dollar has dropped back over the past couple of days after intervention by the BoE (in the gilt market) and the PBOC (in the renminbi)... 30th September 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Bonds may soon cease to be the biggest threat to equities As has been the pattern for much of this year, a sharp rise in government bond yields in September heaped yet more downward pressure on stock markets, with the S&P 500 reaching its lowest level since... 30th September 2022 · 14 mins read
Capital Daily How Brazil’s financial markets could perform under Lula Investors have so far taken the prospect of Lula winning Brazil’s presidential election in their stride, but we doubt the country’s markets will do as well as they did last time he was in power. 30th September 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily What to make of the “Bailey put” The Bank of England’s extraordinary intervention in the Gilt market yesterday highlights the increasingly difficult trade-offs facing central banks, and their problematic implications for financial... 29th September 2022 · 8 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack A big further rally in Gilts this year seems unlikely to us While the Bank of England’s temporary U-turn on its balance sheet has caused Gilts to rally strongly, we suspect their yields will remain high for some time yet. 29th September 2022 · 9 mins read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets at risk of more government-induced turmoil The Bank of England appears to have prevented the financial market fallout from the loose fiscal plans revealed in the Chancellor’s mini-budget from escalating into a full financial crisis. Since it... 29th September 2022 · 10 mins read
Africa Chart Pack African central banks stepping up to the plate Just like their peers in advanced economies, monetary policymakers across Sub-Saharan Africa have turned more hawkish recently. Central banks in South Africa and Nigeria hiked interest rates... 29th September 2022 · 12 mins read
Capital Daily US equities don’t seem to be factoring in a gloomier economy The plunge in the stock market in the US that has accompanied the recent ratcheting up of rate expectations there has been partly blamed on concerns that more aggressive Fed tightening is undermining... 28th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Fiscal credibility key for Gilts & sterling Although the latest sell-off in Gilts has been driven in part by expectations for higher interest rates, the accompanying fall in sterling suggests the risk premia attached to UK assets has risen. In... 27th September 2022 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily We doubt a different policy mix will revive sterling soon Although a shift in the UK’s fiscal and monetary policy mix could conceivably boost sterling in due course, we suspect that the currency won’t continue to recover in the near term from its record low... 27th September 2022 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily Italy’s new leadership may still put more pressure on spreads Italy’s new governing coalition doesn’t seem to have troubled investors for now, but we suspect worries about debt sustainability will still result in long dated Italian government bonds struggling... 26th September 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response Policy Response to Plunging Pound (26th Sep.) The further fall in the pound in early trading means that we’ve now reached the point where the Bank of England needs to step in in order to regain the initiative. There are a couple of ways it could... 26th September 2022 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily The UK’s fiscal gamble will keep Gilt yields high We think 10-year gilt yields will remain high following Friday’s fiscal statement from the UK Government. 23rd September 2022 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Kwarteng causes carnage The surge in gilt yields and the fall in the pound after the Chancellor announced his hefty tax cuts suggests that the markets have concluded the policies will lead to higher interest rates and more... 23rd September 2022 · 6 mins read
