FX Markets Outlook Trump win likely to extend dollar strength We expect the US dollar to appreciate a bit further in 2025 as the US economy and stock market continue to outperform peers and president-elect Donald Trump brings in extensive tariffs next year. As... 17th December 2024 · 22 mins read
Capital Daily Euro-zone credit spreads may largely shrug off weak growth We think corporate credit spreads in the euro-zone will widen only slightly next year, despite dim economic prospects. 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook A brighter outlook but a fiscal shadow Falling inflation and looser monetary policy will help GDP growth to accelerate across Sub-Saharan Africa next year. A shift towards trade protectionism in the US will hurt certain sectors in certain... 17th December 2024 · 19 mins read
Asset Allocation Outlook Asset allocation in an inflating AI bubble We think US equities will fare better in 2025 than the other major asset classes we monitor, as the AI bubble inflates further. But we expect equities elsewhere generally to lag those in the US and... 17th December 2024 · 29 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (December 2024) After a stellar run, India’s economy has entered a softer patch that will continue for a few more quarters. We think that will portend an underperformance in local equities relative to other major... 17th December 2024 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Headwinds to euro-zone stock markets to blow harder While equities in Germany have managed to ride out weak growth and political uncertainty this year, those in France have not. We suspect that they will all fare poorly next year, as those adverse... 16th December 2024 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar still going strong as FOMC announcement nears Halfway through the December round of central bank policy announcements the US dollar remains on the front foot, with the DXY index again close to its post-2022 high. Arguably, the dollar’s strength... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly SA activity, naira gains to fade, Ghana election While data out this week showed renewed struggles in South Africa’s mining sector, other figures suggest that a recovery has taken hold in Q4, which should accelerate next year with help from lower... 13th December 2024 · 6 mins read
Capital Daily How the yen might affect Japan’s stock market next year The recent breakdown in the relationship between yen/dollar and the relative performance of stock markets in Japan and the US in local-currency (LC) terms makes it hard to predict how these stock... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily ECB policy may push Bund yields back down next year Given our dovish view of ECB policy, we expect German Bund yields to fall back in 2025, and to diverge further from US Treasury yields. 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Total returns to turn positive in 2025, but offices still weigh The backdrop to our new real estate forecasts is a small reduction in our GDP forecasts and higher level of interest rates than previously. This weighs on the outlook, and we have trimmed our total... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Bonds Focus What to make of shrinking IG credit spreads Despite being around multi-decade lows, we think credit spreads of US investment-grade corporate bonds could fall further still over the next year or so. 12th December 2024 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA and RBNZ to walk different paths Although their recent performance leaves much to be desired, we believe that both Antipodean economies are on the cusp of a cyclical upswing. But while the RBNZ has ample room to support the recovery... 12th December 2024 · 20 mins read
Capital Daily Is a less volatile Treasury market here to stay? The Treasury market has been quite subdued since the US election, including today despite a slightly disconcerting CPI report. We don’t expect it to become a whole lot more volatile in 2025 either... 11th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily EM dollar bond rally may fizzle out While emerging market (EM) dollar bonds have gained some ground lately, they have underperformed US high-yield corporate bonds in total return terms, and we suspect they will continue to lag next year... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
