FX Markets Weekly Wrap FX Weekly: Taking stock ahead of “Liberation Day” Despite President Trump’s decision to jump the gun with tariffs on the auto sector this week (ahead of next week’s widely trailed announcement on 2nd April), the dollar is ending the week broadly flat... 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily More headwinds for gilts to come from home than abroad The UK may have one of the most shielded economies against US tariffs. But stagflation and fiscal risks at home provide strong headwinds for its bond market. 28th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa Economic Outlook: Stronger growth but debt concerns to persist Economies across Sub-Saharan Africa are amongst the least affected EMs by the protectionist shift that the US is embracing. And growth in the region is set for a modest pick-up on the back of lower... 28th March 2025 · 19 mins read
Bonds Update Revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads Given our view that the rise in yields outside Germany will not match the recent increase in Bund yields anytime soon, we are revising down our forecasts for euro-zone spreads. That said, we still... 28th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Tariffs hit stock markets, US relatively spared – for now Equity investors have stopped ignoring US President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcements. We think they are right to do so. 27th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Emerging Markets Outlook: Tariff storm one of many headwinds EM GDP growth picked up towards the end of last year, but the outlook is increasingly challenging – and not just because of US import tariffs. Weaker capital inflows, lower commodity prices and tight... 26th March 2025 · 27 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Fiscal Event Response: Unfinished fiscal business Despite saying the “world is changing”, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, today just tinkered with fiscal policy. This left the impression that bigger changes lie ahead. Indeed, the pressure to raise... 26th March 2025 · 16 mins read
Capital Daily Has China’s tech rally run out of steam? We think China’s tech stocks could rally a bit further yet, and perhaps outperform those globally for a while. 26th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of US equity market exceptionalism While the drop and partial rebound in the US stock market over recent weeks has in many ways followed a familiar pattern, it has also seen some relatively unusual characteristics that point to the... 25th March 2025 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack US Housing Market Chart Pack (Mar. 25) We think markets are too optimistic about Fed rate cuts this year, meaning the recent dip in mortgage rates is just a temporary respite. We expect rates to rebound to 7% and hover around that level... 25th March 2025 · 1 min read
Equities Focus Trump’s agenda isn’t “game over” for ESG investing Environmental, Social and Governance, or ESG, investing has come under renewed pressure due to pushback from the new US president. Despite that, we think that demand for ESG investments is here to... 25th March 2025 · 15 mins read
Asset Allocation Update The beginning of the end of US exceptionalism? While US equity outperformance could reassert itself in the near term if concerns about US growth waned and enthusiasm about AI returned, we suspect that the longer-run story is brighter for equities... 25th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Shifting economic sands in US & EZ are also driving markets Over the past month or so, economic data have generally surprised to the downside in the US, whereas they have done the opposite in the euro-zone. This may be one reason for the intervening shift in... 24th March 2025 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar consolidating as tariff deadline draws nearer The dollar is ending the week broadly flat on net, continuing its stabilisation after February’s sell-off. With the latest round of central bank policy announcements in the rear-view mirror (having... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
Capital Daily Europe’s stock market: no big tech, no big sweat The prospect of looser fiscal policy in Germany isn’t the only significant reason MSCI’s Europe Index has outperformed its USA Index since Donald Trump returned to the White House. The ‘big-tech’... 21st March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China’s 10-year yields to fall below Japan’s We expect Chinese 10-year government bond yields to fall below 10-year Japanese government bond yields this year, for the first time since Chinese bond prices became market determined. While this... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
