India Chart Pack Core price pressures are building Some have argued that the recent jump in inflation is all about a surge in volatile food prices, with the implication that it shouldn’t have a significant bearing on monetary policy. But this ignores... 21st September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus How overvalued is housing? Once you take into account the structural decline in interest rates over the past 40 years, housing in Australia isn’t as overvalued as some analysts have suggested. In fact, in most capital cities it... 20th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response ABS House Prices (Q2) Even though house price inflation on the ABS measure held steady at 10.2% in the second quarter, there are some signs beneath the surface that prices have started to lose momentum. Other forward... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Aug.) The activity and spending data for August all came in below expectations. The main culprit was a slowdown in infrastructure investment, which also weighed on industrial output. We expect further... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Taper without the tantrum While the Bank of Japan didn’t reduce the pace of its bond purchases any further in August, they are much lower now than they were when Yield Curve Control was launched. Nonetheless, bond yields have... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) In response to the slump in home sales that began four months ago, the annual rate of house price inflation fell to 13.1% in August, from 14.2%. That slump points to sharply lower house price... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus Has economic growth passed its peak in New Zealand? While GDP growth should hold up fairly well over the next year, we expect there will be a sharper slowdown than the RBNZ and most analysts are anticipating in 2019 as the impacts of a cooling housing... 12th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Storm clouds gathering in Canada too The housing investment boom may have breathed its last gasp last quarter. With existing home sales floundering and average sale prices dropping, tighter mortgage financing rules and ill-timed interest... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) While annual house price inflation picked up touch in August, the big picture is one of stagnation. Looking ahead, with borrower leverage already high and real wages grinding lower, there is little... 7th September 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Worsening affordability not to blame for subdued home sales The average monthly mortgage payment has reached a nine-year high at the same time as home sales have stalled, but we doubt the first is causing the second. The fact home sales are being agreed in... 24th August 2017 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand Activity Proxy (Jun.) The notable rise in our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) over the second quarter as a whole indicates that GDP growth may have accelerated from a disappointingly weak 0.5% q/q in the first quarter to... 21st August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Drop in multifamily starts will support rental growth Developers have responded quickly to signs that rental vacancy rates in multifamily buildings are edging up, with starts over the past three months reaching their lowest level in four years. That... 18th August 2017 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are house prices in prime central London outperforming? House price growth in prime central London appears strong, but that mostly reflects gains seen in late 2016. Indeed, much like the UK as a whole, activity and price growth in the prime boroughs have... 17th August 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Housing starts surprised on the downside in July, with a 4.8% m/m fall pushing starts to a three-month low. The drop was entirely down to the multifamily sector, with single-family starts holding... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Strong bank earnings conceal gloomy outlook Official data published on Monday show that commercial banks’ non-performing loan (NPL) ratio held steady at 1.74% in Q2 and that their net profits grew almost 12% y/y, the fastest pace since 2014... 16th August 2017 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) The activity and spending data for July all came in below expectations, reversing most of improvement seen at the end of Q2. Nonetheless, industrial production still looks unsustainably strong given... 14th August 2017 · 1 min read
