India Chart Pack Import duty hikes unlikely to aid local manufacturing Recent hikes to import duties on various goods appear to be an attempt by Prime Minister Modi and the BJP to shore up popular support ahead of a clutch of state elections this year, and the general... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Is the interest-only loan market nearing a precipice? There has been a renewed focus in recent weeks on interest-only loans in Australia and the potential risk that these loans present to financial stability, particularly given a large portion of... 23rd February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why has the rate rise not been fully passed on? November’s rate rise has not been passed on in full to mortgage borrowers. But with swap rates up by 50bps over the last 9 months and banks’ funding costs rising, future rate hikes should elicit a... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Existing home sales fell for a second consecutive month in January, leaving them 5% lower than at the start of last year. The good news is that there was a marginal pick up in the number of existing... 21st February 2018 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Is Japan overheating? Japan’s economy recorded an eighth consecutive quarter of growth in Q4, the longest uninterrupted run of expansion since the late 1980s. Unemployment is very low, inflation has started to pick up... 20th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) At first glance it appears that housing starts had a very strong start to the year. The 9.7% m/m jump in January more than reversed December’s decline. But the volatile multifamily sector was... 16th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Has rental growth in London reached a floor? Affordability for renters in the capital is close to a record low. This has already put a dent in tenant demand, causing rents to stagnate last year. There may be some signs that rental supply is... 15th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Are housing stocks signalling the next correction? In contrast to 2005, the recent surge and subsequent retreat in homebuilder share prices is not a signal that the housing market is set for a damaging correction. Back then, homebuilder share prices... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) The resurgence in Vancouver house prices wasn’t enough to prevent a decline in the annual growth rate of the Teranet composite house price index to a 21-month low of 8.7% in January, from 8.9% in the... 14th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK House Price Index (Dec.) House price growth was slow and steady last year, with London seeing the most notable slowdown. With prices in the capital so high, we think London will continue to underperform. 13th February 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly An oasis of record low interest rates If global equity markets are fearing higher interest rates, as this week’s fall suggest, then Australia and New Zealand offer something of an oasis as both the RBA and RBNZ dropped some heavy hints... 9th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage rates close to a four-year high By the end of January mortgage interest rates had risen to close to four-year highs, and the expectation of that rise briefly boosted mortgage applications for home purchase to eight-year highs. But... 8th February 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) Concerns that mortgage rates are set to rise gave both refinancing and home purchase mortgage activity a significant boost in January. But, with mortgage rates now at four-year highs, and no... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Mortgage approvals drop in response to rate hike 2017 ended with no sign of a revival in the housing market. Indeed, coming on top of already high prices and subdued house price expectations, the rate hike led to a sharp dip in mortgage approvals... 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jan.) House price inflation cooled to 2.2% on the Halifax index. And with interest rates starting to rise and real wages still falling, we think house price growth will hold at this level throughout 2018. 7th February 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why is the newbuild premium rising? The rise in the newbuild premium over the past two years appears to be driven by Help-to-Buy and the boost to the demand for new homes it has created. This suggests that the scheme is more generous... 2nd February 2018 · 1 min read
