Japan Chart Pack Back down to earth in Q3 Japan’s economy was always likely to slow in the third quarter after the surge of output it generated in the second. But the latest data have still been rather disappointing. While investment remains... 15th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Slumping Canadian oil prices to dampen investment The steep falls in equities this week are bad enough, but it is the collapse in Canadian oil prices that could have more significant macroeconomic effects. If the capacity constraints that have caused... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet House Prices (Sep.) After accelerating in September for the first time in 16 months, house price inflation could rise a touch further in the near term, but there is little hope of anything more than a temporary and... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Would a no deal Brexit trigger a fall in house prices? A no deal Brexit next March will result in economic activity being lower than in our current forecasts. But with rates also likely to be cut, unless that slowdown is far deeper and more lasting than... 12th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Banks reigned in the availability of mortgage credit in Q3, driven by risk aversion and softening house price expectations. Meanwhile, a fall in risk appetite and concerns about the economic outlook... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Rapid growth to continue for a while yet GDP growth has surged in recent quarters and, while it has probably peaked, we expect it to remain strong ahead of the general election in the first half of 2019. Thereafter, a focus on fiscal... 11th October 2018 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Growth to slow further despite policy easing Policymakers have responded to growing signs of weakness in China’s domestic economy by ramping up policy support. But with momentum still slowing and trade tensions escalating, growth will not... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market activity slows as interest rates rise Mortgage interest rates have continued to trend higher, and look poised to breach 5% for the first time since early 2011 in October. Alongside mortgage lending standards which are still tight, that... 10th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Fresh fall in housing market activity After a brief respite in the middle 2018, housing market activity is once again in decline. As a result, there is little prospect of a recovery in transactions or mortgage approvals before the end of... 9th October 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly USMCA boosts rates, adding pressure to housing The changes to Canada’s trading relationship with the US and Mexico do not, on their own, have big implications for the economy. By removing uncertainty, the agreement will help to keep economic... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) The Halifax index of house prices fall in September, bringing its growth back in line with the other main indices. Looking ahead, we can see few triggers for an acceleration in house price growth. 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The rebound in retail sales in August provides further evidence that households are still proving reasonably resilient to low income growth and falling house prices. But with house prices falling at... 5th October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) Since the end of August, the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate has risen by 16bps, to stand at 4.96% in the final week of September. Given that, the corresponding 0.9% m/m rise in mortgage... 3rd October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) House price growth held firm at 2% y/y in September. And on a regional basis, the South of England tended to underperform the rest of the UK. Looking ahead, we expect that regional trend to continue... 2nd October 2018 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is rate lock-in weighing on home sales? Households electing not to move to avoid giving up a record low, fixed mortgage rate provide one potential explanation for the slowdown in home sales in recent months. However, the available evidence... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Aug.) Mortgage approvals rose in August, but lending is still broadly flat on an annual basis. Looking ahead, with house prices set to stay very high relative to incomes and interest rates rising, our... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
