China Chart Pack US demanding implausibly large import ramp up China’s apparent reluctance to commit to the extra $200bn of US imports relative to 2017 levels that the US is requesting over the next two years as part of the Phase One deal is understandable... 18th December 2019 · 11 mins read
India Chart Pack Populist shift a risk for long-run outlook The citizen amendment bill – which aims to fast-track citizenship for non-Muslims from neighbouring Muslim-majority countries – has dominated the news over the past couple of weeks. This isn’t... 18th December 2019 · 9 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Nov.) The activity and spending indicators beat expectations. But retail sales and real estate activity are weaker than the headline figures suggest. And we think growth will resume its downward trend... 16th December 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Focus The QM patch needs to be replaced, but with what? Against the CFPB’s expectations, use of the qualified mortgage patch has not declined since it was introduced in 2013. If it is not replaced before it expires in early 2021, we therefore anticipate... 13th December 2019 · 17 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov.) November’s survey data support our view that the housing market will struggle to gain any upward momentum next year. After all, with house prices high and mortgage interest rates unable to fall much... 12th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Tax hike less damaging than previous ones The available data on retail sales, household spending as well as the Bank of Japan’s consumption activity index show that consumer spending fell broadly as much in October as in April 2014, when the... 11th December 2019 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q3) Lower prices have encouraged borrowers to take out higher LTV loans. But lenders have maintained their credit scoring standards and maximum LTI ratios, and that is unlikely to change anytime soon... 10th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Our key calls for 2020 We think that GDP growth in both Australia and New Zealand will fall short of expectations, forcing both the RBNZ and the RBA to cut interest rates more sharply than most expect. The consensus is that... 10th December 2019 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack A subdued end to the year for housing Housing market activity and house price growth showed few signs of improvement at the end of 2019. Indeed, activity has, if anything, been cooling. That partly reflects economic and political... 9th December 2019 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) Concerns that a jump in the 10-year Treasury yield would herald a rise in mortgage rates look to have persuaded some buyers to bring forward a home purchase application, with demand rising to a five... 4th December 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) Our sales to new listings ratio suggests that house price growth will moderate before long. Even so given the sharp increase in recent months, we now expect prices to rise by around 7% in 2020 and 5%... 2nd December 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Election hopefuls pull their punches on housing Labour and the Conservatives have pulled their punches on housing policy. Indeed, only Labour’s pledge to boost social housing construction would materially affect the market. As a result, we expect... 29th November 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Oct.) House purchase mortgage approvals fell sharply in October. Looking ahead, even if uncertainty were to lift at the start of next year, the housing market fundamentals do not support a pick-up in... 29th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Nov.) We wouldn’t read too much into November’s pick-up in house price growth. Indeed, the big picture is that, even if the economic and political uncertainty eases next year, house price growth will pick... 28th November 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Oct.) Given the political and economic uncertainty, October’s drop in house purchase mortgage approvals came as little surprise. And even if uncertainty were to clear in the coming months, high house prices... 26th November 2019 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage rates to stay close to 4% over next two years We now expect mortgage interest rates to stay close to their current level over the next couple of years. That will give some support to housing demand but, as was the case this year, offsetting... 25th November 2019 · 3 mins read
