Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Australia - Investors won’t save the housing market Investors are not increasing their demand for housing and even if they did, owner-occupiers account for 70% of overall housing demand. The upshot is that investors won’t prevent house prices from... 20th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update House price expectations turn negative Consumers now expect house prices to fall 2% over the next 12-months, the first negative reading since 2011. That will cut the amount buyers are willing to pay and, alongside a drop in rents, supports... 14th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Apr.) With the housing market reopening, April’s slump in sales may be the market’s lowest point. But any recovery will start from a low base and face serious economic headwinds – from both weak employment... 14th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales heading to record lows The impact of the coronavirus is showing up in housing market activity. Pending home sales plummeted 21% m/m in March, which points to existing home sales falling to just over 4m annualised in April... 12th May 2020 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can lockdown house price data be trusted? Low transactions volumes have made house price indices volatile and inaccurate. Indeed, the ONS has suspended publication of the official UK House Price Index, while the Halifax and Nationwide data... 11th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Apr.) House prices fell for a second consecutive month in April according to the Halifax index. But with low transactions activity likely to be causing extra volatility in the data, readings from the... 7th May 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Mortgage applications for home purchase were down overall in April, but saw a decent recovery over the second half of the month. Record low mortgage rates will have supported demand to some extent... 6th May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Mortgage holidays surge to two million The data now point to two million households with mortgage holidays. This suggests that the peak in arrears may be much higher than during the GFC. But, with mortgage credit quality and banks’... 5th May 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Mar.) Mortgage approvals for house purchase slumped by a hefty 24% in March. And with the coronavirus likely to have only cut lending in the second half of the month, we expect an even larger fall in April. 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Apr.) April’s rise in annual house price growth won’t last. We suspect it reflects both low transaction volumes and delays to processing mortgage applications. As the economic hit to employment from the... 1st May 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Easing lockdowns will boost growth The strict lockdowns have resulted in a massive drop in demand, but they have also been successful at ‘flattening the curve’ or reducing the number of new daily cases of Covid-19 in both countries... 30th April 2020 · 10 mins read
House prices to remain below pre-virus level for years Income support and mortgage relief will reduce the chance that people are forced to sell homes. But with immigration slumping, house prices are unlikely to recover quickly from the 5% fall that we... 29th April 2020 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update House prices to fall, but not crash Unlike in previous downturns, residential property has not been the root cause this time. Even so, house prices will not escape this recession unscathed. If policy support proves effective, if... 29th April 2020 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Feb.) Low inventory and mortgage rates helped house price growth accelerate over the turn of the year. But the sharp drop in housing demand caused by the coronavirus means prices are set for a modest fall... 28th April 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Shadow banking woes deepen Measures to contain the spread of the coronavirus will increase strains among traditional banks, but the shadow banking sector – still reeling from a large-scale default 18 months ago – is likely to... 22nd April 2020 · 9 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - House prices may fall sharply in the coming years The RBNZ’s decision to lift LVR restrictions is unlikely to provide much support to house prices in New Zealand. We think that the sharp decline in home sales and confidence together with the likely... 22nd April 2020 · 2 mins read
