China Economics Weekly Trade surplus near all-time global high Data released this week confirm that China is on course to run one of the biggest annual current account surpluses ever recorded relative to global GDP, despite the global economic slump. Pandemic... 11th September 2020 · 5 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Aug.) The housing market strengthened further in August. But as pent-up demand from lockdown dries up over the coming months, conditions will soon cool. We expect house price growth to stagnate next year... 10th September 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Aug.) House price growth in August exceeded expectations, surging to 5.2% y/y. But pent-up demand will soon be expended, while a weak economy, cautious lenders and the end of the stamp duty cut will weigh... 7th September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Following a surge in May, mortgage applications for home purchase have since stabilised at a level around 25% higher than last year. Pent-up demand, record low mortgage rates and some evidence of... 2nd September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The housing downturn deepened further in Melbourne in August and continued in Sydney but seems to be abating elsewhere. We reiterate our forecast that house prices across the eight capital cities will... 1st September 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Inflation target change won’t turbocharge house prices Given interest rates are already very low, we doubt any additional stimulus introduced because of the change to the inflation target will provide a significant boost to the economy or house prices... 27th August 2020 · 3 mins read
China Chart Pack Recent stimulus has set back domestic rebalancing The consumption share of GDP had edged up in recent years, but that progress has been reversed by the COVID-19 stimulus response, which has focused on boosting investment. The consumption share should... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Lockdown fatigue is making restrictions less effective In Australia, the lockdown in Melbourne in July was of similar intensity to the initial lockdown in April. Even so, retail sales only fell by 2% m/m in Victoria which still left them around 2% above... 27th August 2020 · 11 mins read
Asia Chart Pack Second wave unlikely to completely derail recoveries Having been among the fastest in the world at controlling the initial outbreak, Hong Kong, Vietnam and Korea are all at different stages of a second wave of infections. With new infections in Hong... 26th August 2020 · 14 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Can planning changes boost housebuilding? Private housebuilding is constrained by the speed at which builders can sell homes at prevailing market prices, which planning changes will do little to change. As a result, the government’s proposed... 20th August 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Record low mortgage rates boost housing activity Mortgage rates have continued to fall, hitting a record low 3.14% at the end of July. Alongside the reopening of parts of the economy, and pent-up demand from the spring, that has helped home sales... 12th August 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) According to the Halifax index, house prices rebounded in July. Along with the recent Nationwide data and stronger lending, this is further support for our view that a house price crash is now... 7th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Implications of Victoria’s strict lockdown The state of Victoria isn’t getting its virus outbreak under control and imposed draconian restrictions on economic activity this week. These will of course undermine the recovery, but they also mean... 7th August 2020 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) Mortgage applications for home purchase trended down over July, even as the 30-year mortgage rate fell to a record low 3.14%. The working through of pent-up demand from the spring, record low... 5th August 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The further decline in house prices in July is likely to persist in the coming months given the renewed lockdown and disruptions to activity in Melbourne. We ultimately expect house prices to fall by... 3rd August 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jul.) House prices bounced back in July, unwinding the fall seen in June. Along with the pickup in lending in June, this reinforces our view that a house price crash is now unlikely. Although, with the... 31st July 2020 · 2 mins read
