Record low inventory to weigh on home sales The main news this week was that home sales hit a record high in September. As inventory is at a record low, sales are set to moderate from here, but prices should keep rising. 16th October 2020 · 6 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Mortgage availability saw a modest improvement Q3, but not enough to reverse the large fall seen in Q2. Meanwhile, credit availability to commercial property fell sharply during the quarter, and... 15th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Huge policy support paves way for strong recovery Australia and New Zealand have had far greater success in containing the virus than most other large advanced economies. Coupled with huge fiscal support, that means that the recovery in economic... 15th October 2020 · 24 mins read
China Economic Outlook Recovery broadening out China has become the first major economy to return to its pre-virus growth path, thanks to its rapid containment of COVID-19 and effective stimulus response. The rebound initially leaned heavily on... 12th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Rising labour costs to prevent slump in inflation Inflation has held up better than we had anticipated in recent months. The surge in spare capacity suggests that it could weaken more sharply as social distancing measures are relaxed. But we only... 12th October 2020 · 10 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.) Housing market activity rose for a fourth consecutive month in September, but the market may be approaching an inflection point. We expect house price growth and transactions to cool by the end of the... 8th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Recovery could surprise to the upside Japan’s success in containing the virus without imposing draconian restrictions on activity should enable a faster return to pre-virus levels of output than in many major economies. We expect GDP to... 8th October 2020 · 21 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) House price growth surged to a four-year high according to the Halifax index. But there are tentative signs that the pent-up demand driving the latest mini-boom may be running out. We think house... 7th October 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Sep.) The housing downturn continued its run in Sydney and Melbourne in September, but prices rose again in the other six capital cities and we think nationwide prices will reach a trough by the end of this... 1st October 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Supply of new homes running out Surging demand has led to a sharp drop in the number of new homes for sale, with the fall driven by a collapse in the inventory of completed homes. A jump in single-family building permits will... 30th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Sep.) House prices are rising at their fastest rate in four years. But price gains are likely to slow as the pent-up demand driving the market now is expended. Looking ahead, we think a weak underlying... 30th September 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Victoria restrictions didn’t hit as hard as initially feared The surge in case numbers due to the second wave in Melbourne has been brought under control with new daily cases falling back towards zero. Heavy restrictions on activity still remain in place in... 30th September 2020 · 10 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus House prices may rise by 7% in 2021 The improvement in the labour market, lower borrowing costs and a turnaround in leading indicators all suggest that the housing downturn will soon come to an end. We now expect house prices across the... 22nd September 2020 · 16 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Rising interest rates don’t signal a credit crunch We don’t think the surge in high-LTV interest rates signals an incoming credit crunch. Rather, it probably reflects lenders prioritising demand from less risky borrowers. As the surge from pent-up... 18th September 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack V-shaped housing recovery emerges The housing market has so far seen a V shaped recovery. House purchase mortgage approvals have already recovered to their pre-virus level, while house prices have reversed the dip recorded earlier in... 16th September 2020 · 8 mins read
