US Housing Market Update Fall in FTB share good news for future rental demand Rising rental vacancy rates in large cities have not been accompanied by a surge in first-time buyers (FTBs). Indeed, 2020 saw the lowest share of FTBs since 1987. That implies many of those rental... 18th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family starts had another strong month in October, and are now up 75% compared to their trough in April. Record low inventory is supporting homebuilder confidence, and that points to further... 18th November 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Only light-touch restrictions on horizon for now Japan is in the midst of a third wave of COVID-19. Daily infections have already reached their previous early-August peak. Only the Hokkaido Government has responded with countermeasures so far... 17th November 2020 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct.) Outstanding real estate debt fell markedly in October, but this was fully driven by a drop in residential loan balances. Commercial real estate debt was up only marginally, but the bigger point is... 13th November 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates will temper housing demand The 30-year mortgage rate fell below 3% last week, but we doubt it will stay there for long. A rise in 10-year Treasury yields means mortgage rates will soon tick-up. That will weigh on housing demand... 12th November 2020 · 8 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Have we been too pessimistic about pricing in 2020? Third quarter data make it look increasingly likely that our year-end price forecasts will prove to be too negative. However, with the UK still on course for a capital value fall of close to 10% this... 12th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Oct.) The housing market remains exceedingly buoyant, with both the number of sales and house prices rising further in October. But like us, surveyors are increasingly doubtful that the price gains and... 12th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Could cladding issues weigh on the housing market? Cladding issues are a downside risk to our already weak housing transactions forecasts for next year. If there continues to be severe testing delays and no change in policy, transactions could end up... 9th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Oct.) The smallest monthly increase in house prices since June shows that the surge in house prices was losing steam even before the second lockdown was announced. With the economic outlook deteriorating... 6th November 2020 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Construction PMI (Oct.) The fall in the headline construction PMI to its lowest level since May shows that the recovery in activity was waning even before the second lockdown began. Admittedly, construction sites will remain... 5th November 2020 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Transactions likely to remain weak in 2021 Commercial property transactions are likely to end the year around 40% down on 2019 totals. And with the prospect of an extended lockdown this winter, a slower economic recovery and falling capital... 3rd November 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demand for expensive homes surges Wealthy buyers seeking homes during the pandemic have driven the share of existing homes sold for over $500,000 to a record high. A lack of inventory has prevented a similar rise in the new home... 2nd November 2020 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) Australia’s housing downturn came to an end last month and we reiterate our forecast that house prices will rise by 7% in 2021, led by Sydney. 2nd November 2020 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack On the road to recovery As restrictions have been lifted in both countries, activity has rebounded. Admittedly, the second draconian lockdown in Victoria will hold back the recovery in GDP in Australia in Q3 and Q4. But we... 29th October 2020 · 11 mins read
