Japan Economic Outlook Vaccines to hasten recovery despite third virus wave Japan is battling a third virus wave and is a laggard in the global vaccine rollout race. Even so, we expect economic activity to return to pre-virus levels in the second half of this year as vaccines... 11th January 2021 · 22 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Dec.) 2020 may well have been the strangest year for the housing market since the Halifax house price index began in 1983. Despite the biggest drop in GDP since 1709, house prices rose by 7% y/y in Q4, the... 8th January 2021 · 2 mins read
China Economics Update Property sector facing new restrictions on credit The share of bank loans flowing to the property sector has doubled during the past 15 years. But new restrictions are likely to put an end to this upward trend. Coupled with broader limits on... 8th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Key Calls for 2021 Compared to consensus, we are relatively downbeat on the outlook for home sales this year. Mortgage rates will stay close to record lows, but they will not fall further. Pent-up demand from last... 7th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update House prices to rise further in 2021 The wide range of forecasts for house prices in 2021 shows that there is still a lot of uncertainty ahead. Nevertheless, given strong demand and low mortgage rates, our view is that prices will... 6th January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) Even as mortgage rates stayed close to record lows, applications for home purchase declined in each of the last three weeks of December. With interest rates not set to fall further and the boost to... 6th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update 2021 likely to see house price surge reversed The government’s plan to end the furlough scheme and the stamp duty holiday in the spring sets the housing market up for a hangover from the surge in prices in 2020. As a result, we are more downbeat... 5th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Nov.) The increase in mortgage approvals for house purchase to over 100,000 for the first time since August 2007 underlines the remarkable strength of housing market activity. If moving house continues to... 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Australia - CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) House prices continue to rise strongly in Australia and we now think they will rise by 10% between the end of 2020 and the start of 2021. 4th January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Oct.) Record low mortgage rates, surging home sales and tight inventory pushed annual house price growth to a 6½-year high in October, but we doubt the boom in prices will last for long. The past gain in... 29th December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market to cool in 2021 The housing market boomed in the latter half of 2020, as record low mortgage rates, displacement due to COVID-19 and increased savings boosted home demand. But those drivers will ease in 2021 and... 23rd December 2020 · 17 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response FHFA House Prices / New Home Sales (Oct/Nov.) New home sales fell 11.0% m/m in November, driven by a lack of inventory and pent-up demand from earlier in the year coming to an end. But easing demand is yet to feed through to house price growth... 23rd December 2020 · 2 mins read
India Chart Pack Cautious optimism as 2020 ends COVID-19 has ravaged India’s economy in 2020, and GDP is all but certain to have suffered its largest slump on record this year. But there are reasons for optimism as the year draws to a close... 23rd December 2020 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Nov.) Existing home sales fell for the first time in five months in November, as record low inventory and the exhaustion of pent-up demand from the spring put a dampener on activity. Record low mortgage... 22nd December 2020 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) Single-family starts rose for the seventh consecutive month in November, but at a slower pace. And with production constraints starting to weigh on homebuilder confidence, we think that gains will... 17th December 2020 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Go To Travel suspension will weigh on consumption PM Suga’s decision on Tuesday to halt the Go To Travel campaign for two weeks from 28th December may put the recovery in services spending into temporary reverse. It comes after authorities in Tokyo... 17th December 2020 · 10 mins read
