Australia & New Zealand Economics Focus RBNZ to hike rates next year We now expect the RBNZ to tighten monetary policy in the years ahead as GDP growth, the labour market and inflation will be much stronger than the Bank has anticipated. We expect asset purchases to be... 26th January 2021 · 18 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hospitality re-openings key to the outlook this year Leisure and hospitality re-openings were behind the strongest job growth in the Autumn, although national data for December suggest that this could be reversed on the back of renewed lockdowns. With... 22nd January 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales recorded a marginal gain in December but are set to fall back over 2021. Mortgage rates will not decline any further and rising house prices have already reversed the boost to... 22nd January 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Single-family starts rebounded in December, recording their largest month-on-month gain since June. While production constraints will continue to weigh on starts, we are relatively upbeat about the... 21st January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Credit Conditions Survey (Q4 2020) Very strong demand allowed banks to maintain tight lending standards in Q4 2020 while still increasing mortgage lending volumes. Of course, buyer demand is likely to drop sharply when the stamp duty... 21st January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Economic Outlook A year of two halves China’s economy will continue to beat most expectations in the near term, as households spend more freely. But momentum will soften during the second half of the year as props from stimulus and... 21st January 2021 · 22 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Falling virus cases an upside risk this quarter Our forecast for a 1.5% q/q fall in consumption in Q1 rests on the assumption that some businesses in virus hotspots will be forced to close in order to contain Japan’s most severe wave of the... 20th January 2021 · 10 mins read
US Economic Outlook Vaccines and stimulus to boost recovery With additional large-scale fiscal stimulus likely to offset the near-term drag on activity stemming from the surge in COVID-19 cases – and the vaccination effort likely to reach critical mass by mid... 19th January 2021 · 24 mins read
UK Housing Market Update New starts likely to remain weak as transactions slump Completions of new homes have made a full recovery from their collapse in Q2 2020, but builders appear more hesitant to start new projects. Given we expect the housing market to endure a rough patch... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Surge in growth will allow central banks to step back The recovery in GDP and employment in both Australia and New Zealand is set to continue surprising to the upside. As such, we expect the RBA to stop its QE programme in April. Meanwhile, we estimate... 18th January 2021 · 24 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Investors in Europe moving down the risk curve Although rental growth prospects for prime property are weak compared to recent years, the outlook is better than for secondary property. As such, we think that investors will continue to focus on... 18th January 2021 · 3 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q4), Activity & Spending (Dec.) On the official figures, China’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years last quarter. The monthly data suggest that growth dropped back slightly heading into 2021 but it remains strong. We... 18th January 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Home sales to cool as affordability worsens House price growth surged to 8.4% y/y in October, as booming home sales have combined with record low inventory to boost values. But that rise in prices has already offset the improvement to... 15th January 2021 · 9 mins read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Dec.) Sales and prices rose further in December, but there were clear signs that momentum was waning even before the new lockdown was imposed. Indeed, with the end of the stamp duty holiday looming, most... 14th January 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Some drop in the London rent premium to be sustained The latest lockdown will keep rental demand in London very weak and prolong the drop in rents there. There is no doubt that they will recover in the summer if vaccines are successful and the virus... 13th January 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Housing Market Update Two examples of what leasehold reform could mean Government reform of leasehold will reduce payments from leaseholders to freehold landlords a lot in some instances. In this Update, we provide two examples of how the changes will affect... 11th January 2021 · 3 mins read
