US Commercial Property Chart Pack

US Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 24)

While investment has tentatively turned a corner, subdued activity and further rises in cap rates mean 2024 will still be a tough year. All-property values are down by 18% from their mid-2022 peaks...

14th August 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Update

Drop in mortgage rates won’t set the market alight

We are sceptical that the recent decline in mortgage rates will revive the housing market. Rates are still high compared to recent years, discouraging homeowners from moving, while most potential new...

12th August 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Mortgage Applications (Jul. 2024)

July was a disappointing month for mortgage activity overall, with earlier high borrowing costs causing home purchase applications to slide by 5.4% m/m. All the attention, however, will be on the last...

7th August 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Chart Pack

US Housing Market Chart Pack (Jul. 2024)

A pullback in buyer demand paired with rising supply has cooled the market, causing house price inflation to ease. However, the recent sharp decline in mortgage rates will offset some of that softness...

6th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Office conversion proceeding faster than expected

We have been sceptical of the viability of conversion of excess office space into residential units. But the latest figures indicate that, despite marginal financials, there may have been more...

1st August 2024 · 6 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Elevated insurance premiums continue to hit valuations

The rise in severe weather events over the last five years has left property insurers scrambling to price-in physical risks, causing premium growth to reach a 20-year high. While we think the worst is...

31st July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Update

Strong supply weighing on house prices in the Sun Belt

Significant homebuilding in the Sun Belt region over the past three years has restored housing inventory to pre-pandemic levels, which is why house prices there have stalled. In contrast, markets in...

30th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (May 2024)

Another moderate 0.3% m/m rise in house prices in May adds to the evidence that sellers are losing their grip on the market due to increasing supply. Do not write our forecast for a 5% gain in house...

30th July 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Existing Home Sales (Jun. 2024)

The sharp rise in mortgage rates in April was the catalyst for existing home sales falling to a 13-year low in June. However, borrowing costs have since receded and timelier indicators of activity...

23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Jun. 2024)

The rise in housing starts and building permits in June is not as good as it seems at first glance, as it was driven by gains in the volatile multi-family sector, which we think will prove temporary...

17th July 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Flight to more affordable South set to continue

Many households have left western metros in favor of those in the South over the past two years. With remote working looking like a permanent fixture of office-based jobs and affordability...

16th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Housing Market Outlook

Market still tight, but slowly moving towards balance

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, but not by enough to fully offset the effects of mortgage rate ‘lock-in’. As a result, although we expect existing home sales to rebound, we forecast that...

16th July 2024 · 15 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

The shape of Labour's housing policy

The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said...

3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a sharper hit to office demand is set to weigh on US property returns over the next couple of years. Overall, the UK is set to outperform over...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

US Mortgage Applications (June 2024)

The decline in mortgage rates back below 7% helped mortgage applications for home purchase to rise by 5.1% m/m in June. That gain was tiny in the context of the ongoing three-year slump in...

3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read