China Economics Update Will falling house prices hurt consumption? There are several strong reasons – not least the evidence of previous downturns – to believe that continued falls in China’s property prices will have little impact on household spending. The risks... 20th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Market moves leave Fed with a tricky balancing act The recent market moves could help the Fed to hit the employment part of its dual mandate but will take it further away from its inflation target. While we don’t think this necessarily means that a... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) The rise in housing starts in September continued the recent volatile pattern whereby a decline in one month has been followed by an increase in the next. But while there has been little underlying... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Outlook House price growth eases on back of falling demand Housing market activity has cooled considerably over the past few months. A lack of homes available for sale, fears over future increases in interest rates, a drop in mortgage lending following the... 17th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Higher mortgage fees don’t point to future mortgage stress Mortgage fees and charges, whether guarantee fees, mortgage insurance premiums or origination points, have increased in recent years. But fees are not weighing significantly on buyer demand and do not... 16th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus The outlook for mortgage interest rate spreads After blowing out during the financial crisis, mortgage interest rate spreads have been trending down for the past 18 months. As financial markets make further progress towards normality, that process... 14th October 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Stalled recovery adds to pressure on policymakers The European economic recovery has weakened, with the euro-zone now at risk of recession and countries outside the region feeling the effects on their exports. While the euro-zone’s peripheral... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update “Occupy Central” not the only headwind to Hong Kong’s economy The demonstrations in Hong Kong are taking their toll on the economy, with the retail sector so far bearing the brunt. But even if the protests die down, the ongoing corruption crackdown in China and... 13th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Drop in yields and oil price trump higher dollar We expect the boost from lower long-term interest rates to outweigh any negative impact on economic growth from the stronger dollar. The 10-year yield started the year at 3.0%, but most recently has... 10th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Investors and cash buyers pull back The 18% m/m surge in new home sales in August was not enough to outweigh the 1.8% m/m decline in the much larger existing homes market. Strikingly, this decline was due to a weakening in demand from... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Sep.) The September RICS survey has once again indicated that demand in the housing market is cooling, particularly in London. But there is tentative evidence that activity levels and price expectations are... 9th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Sep.) While the rise of 0.6% m/m in September on the Halifax measure of house prices is perhaps stronger than expected, it remains the case that underlying house price inflation is cooling. With housing... 8th October 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The increase in the CoreLogic measure of house prices in August, although barely half the average monthly gain of 2012 and 2013, suggests that the housing market is putting the soft patch in prices... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q3) Credit availability contracted in both the commercial and residential sectors in the third quarter, with mortgages seeing a particularly severe decline. But while lenders expect the availability of... 7th October 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble unlikely to prompt a rate hike Housing bubble fears have prompted some commentators to suggest that the Bank of Canada should hike interest rates before it's too late. But since the Bank doesn't typically target asset price... 6th October 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack UK Housing Market Monthly The cooling in housing demand seen over the past few months is now feeding through into weaker house price gains. But mortgage lending and activity should begin to recover towards the end of the year... 3rd October 2014 · 1 min read
