US Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity finally picking up A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economic growth continues to misfire This week we expect to learn that monthly real GDP increased by a muted 0.1% m/m in April. Given that GDP contracted in both February and March, however, that would represent a disappointing rebound... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Impact of Brexit on housing market will be limited The sharp drop in Treasury yields following the decision by the UK electorate to leave the European Union is unlikely to trigger an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. At the same time, with the impact... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (May.) Mortgage approvals partly reversed April’s post-stamp duty slump in May. But with the near-term economic outlook weakened by the Brexit vote, and uncertainty now set to persist, we expect growth in... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Out vote will hit transactions harder than house prices The electorate’s vote to take the UK out the European Union presents another potential headwind to a housing market already labouring under worryingly high prices. But if we are right that the economy... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (May) After a 12.3% m/m jump in April, it is not surprising that new home sales fell back in May. But even after a 6.0% m/m drop sales in May were 5.6% higher than in March. That suggests that new home... 23rd June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Existing Home Sales (May) Existing home sales rose by a marginal 1.8% m/m in May, helped by low mortgage rates. But with sales back to their long-run average and the inventory of homes for sale very low, we doubt sales will... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Fallout from Brexit vote would be limited A vote by the UK to leave the European Union in tomorrow's referendum would be unlikely to have much impact on India's economy. Indian exports to the UK are equivalent to less than 0.5% of GDP, so... 22nd June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are investors right to be targeting Manchester? Media reports suggest that Chinese investors are increasingly targeting Manchester residential property. With capital appreciation set to slow markedly over the coming years, that makes sense, as... 21st June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May.) Today’s data on housing starts were somewhat disappointing, showing no change in starts between April and May. But with market conditions still tight and builder confidence rising, starts should... 17th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why can’t home sellers extract higher prices? Given low inventory levels, experience suggests that house prices should be rising at double their current rate of around 5% y/y. But with low numbers of existing homes for sale, the behaviour of... 16th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Wealth effect weighs on Hong Kong consumption Private consumption growth in Hong Kong is at the weakest since 2009, even though the labour market is tight and real wages are growing strongly. The downturn in the city’s housing market and a slump... 15th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Official UK House Price Index (Apr.) The new official UK house price index reported that house price inflation slowed a touch in April. And a new breakdown of the data showed that price pressures were strongest for newbuild homes and... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators Statistics (Q1) The detailed mortgage lending statistics released by the Bank of England today confirm the surge in activity amongst BTL landlords ahead of the recent stamp duty changes. Yet more significant, perhaps... 14th June 2016 · 1 min read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (May) Industrial activity remained stable last month but a further slowdown in private sector investment raises concerns about the medium term outlook. 13th June 2016 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Hot housing fires up policy debate If the housing markets in both Australia and New Zealand remain strong, then our forecasts that interest rates will fall to 1.0% in Australia and to 1.75% in New Zealand would look out of reach... 10th June 2016 · 1 min read
