US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (May 2024)

The drop in housing starts in May is consistent with the recent slowdown in permit issuance, pointing to construction continuing to falter this year.

20th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack

UK Commercial Property Chart Pack (Jun. 24)

Capital values are close to bottoming out in most sectors as yields have stabilised. However, with no yield compression and moderating rental growth the recovery will be weak by past standards, not...

20th June 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Political uncertainty to hit French property values

Investor concerns about the upcoming snap legislative elections have pushed up French government bond yields and we think they will rise further over the rest of the year. This has worsened the...

20th June 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Downtowns will recover, but not any time soon

The gap between downtown and suburban office vacancy rates has widened alarmingly since 2020. This reflects pandemic-driven changes to working patterns, exacerbated by the cyclical slowdown. In our...

18th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

How Labour could succeed in raising housebuilding

With little fiscal space to play with, the next government will have to get creative in order to deliver on its manifesto pledges. Labour’s plan to change the law so that the state receives more of...

14th June 2024 · 9 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

London office starts spell trouble for non-prime space

The latest Crane Survey reported that a record high 16.4m sq. ft. of London office space was under construction in Q1. That in part reflects developers delaying projects until the demand outlook...

13th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Outlook

End of the correction in sight, but outlook remains gloomy

The price correction showed signs of stabilisation in early 2024, but we think further, albeit much smaller, value falls are to come as yields edge a bit higher. Values should bottom by year-end, but...

13th June 2024 · 32 mins read

US Commercial Property Outlook

Property values on course to fall by more than 25%

The market remains in the doldrums, with the mood negative and activity weak. We think this summer could be the bottom for transactions, but we still see valuations needing to fall by another 12% from...

11th June 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in lending unlikely to gain more momentum

The granular data on mortgage lending in Q1 contained some signs of relief following the dip in mortgage rates at the end of last year. But given that decline in rates has since reversed, we don’t...

11th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Tables turning in favour of southern European offices

Indications that take-up stabilised across many markets in Q1 were encouraging. However, looking ahead we think the prospects for occupier demand are better in southern European markets.

6th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Focus

Interest rate cuts won’t reduce mortgage costs much

Just as fixed mortgage rates have shielded homeowners from rising interest rates, they will prevent households’ interest costs from falling rapidly when interest rates are cut. While borrowers on...

6th June 2024 · 14 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rose to a two-year high of 54.7 in May. Both the commercial and housing balances improved, with the latter rising above 50 for the first time since October 2022...

6th June 2024 · 2 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

How much office space will be needed by 2030?

Our 2020 analysis of the impact of changed working patterns on office demand correctly estimated the share of fully remote work, but underpredicted the extent of hybrid work. Yet with office job...

5th June 2024 · 5 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Will delays to rate cuts hit capital values?

Inflation has been stickier than we had expected and we have therefore pushed back when we think the Bank will start cutting interest rates. That may put a little upward pressure on property yields...

4th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Apr. 24)

Following two consecutive quarters of declines, net lending to property reached £891m in April. But looking through the monthly volatility, net lending totalled just £692m over the past three months...

31st May 2024 · 1 min read