UK Commercial Property Update

Do the latest job figures hint at weaker office rents?

UK employment has faltered of late and, though growth is expected to improve, no return to the buoyancy of the recent past is in prospect. While headcount has become a weaker indicator of office...

10th July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Industrial supply risks look most pointed in Phoenix

The legacy of the post-pandemic industrial construction boom is now being felt in rising supply across most metros. With the demand outlook stabilising, we think the evolution of supply will shape...

9th July 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think...

8th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Latest trade data spell good news for Iberian ports

Timely estimates of trade through Europe’s busiest seaports so far this year have broadly mirrored relative economic performance across Europe, as volumes through Iberia’s ports have recovered while...

4th July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jun 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in June from its two-year high last month, but at 52.2 remains in expansionary territory. Both the commercial and housing balances retreated, with the...

4th July 2024 · 1 min read

UK Housing Market Update

The shape of Labour's housing policy

The overarching theme of the Labour government’s housing policies will be a rebalancing of rights in favour of tenants and aspiring homeowners at the expense of landowners and landlords. That said...

3rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Global Commercial Property Chart Pack

Global Commercial Property Chartpack

The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and a sharper hit to office demand is set to weigh on US property returns over the next couple of years. Overall, the UK is set to outperform over...

3rd July 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Apartment Metros Outlook

Houston and Chicago top the apartment rankings

Across the 17 metros we cover, most will see higher vacancy over the next year or so due to a surge in completions. Atlanta and Houston will be the key exceptions. There new construction has plummeted...

2nd July 2024 · 6 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Retail rental growth pessimism appears misplaced

The consensus is still downbeat on the outlook for retail rents, with growth expected to underperform even the struggling office sector. But with a decent consumer recovery on the horizon we think...

2nd July 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

CMBS losses not a sign of widespread debt crisis

News that some top-rated CMBS in both the US and Europe are set to make losses is in line with our previous view that distress will ramp up in 2024. But, to date, the troubled securities have all been...

27th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Benelux prime office rent outperformance to wane

A soft start to 2024 for office demand and weak jobs outlook in Benelux suggest that recent rental outperformance will not last. With supply also rising, we think prime rental growth will slow to...

27th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why are residential yields so low?

Higher costs, lower risk, a better rental growth outlook and competition from less yield-sensitive buyers all help explain why residential yields have been below other commercial property sectors for...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Strong US dollar to weigh on hotel recovery; West to trail

After a strong recovery post-pandemic, momentum in hotel revenue growth is likely to remain subdued over the next few years. With a stronger US dollar hindering the revival of the tourist industry, we...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Munich office rent boom has further to go, Berlin trails

We are generally pessimistic about the rental outlook in Germany, however, this conceals large variance across cities – most notably for offices between leader Munich and laggard Berlin. Munich prime...

25th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why we think yield compression will be limited

With inflation back to target the stage is set for a decline in interest rates. Indeed, we think that the 10-year gilt yield will have dropped to 3% by end-26. But we don’t think that will lead to...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read