US Commercial Property Chart Pack Sector and city performance to remain uneven Fiscal and monetary stimulus have kept economic growth solid and will support a continued recovery. While this bodes well for occupier demand, structural factors have weighed heavily on the office and... 18th February 2021 · 11 mins read
Long Run Update Ten key calls for the next 30 years The Long Run is a new subscription service offering insight into issues that will shape the global economy and financial markets over the next 30 years. This Update outlines our ten key calls for the... 17th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Long-Term Outlook 2020s unlikely to be a rerun of the 1930s and 2000s We anticipate that US equities will outperform long-dated Treasuries over the next ten years, even though the valuation of the stock market is even higher now than it was at the beginning of the 1930s... 16th February 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Pandemic widens sectoral divergences Despite the sharp hit to economic activity, euro-zone prime commercial property values were comparatively unscathed last year, falling by just 2%. However, this hides large differences in performance... 16th February 2021 · 10 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) Commercial real estate debt growth picked up in January, seeing its strongest rise since April. That likely reflects a sharp increase in investment deals completed at the tail-end of 2020. While this... 12th February 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Calling time on Italian prime retail rental growth We think that prolonged weakness in domestic and foreign spending on prime high streets in Italy will add to pressure on rental affordability, triggering rental falls this year. However, a less... 12th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update COVID-19 legacy will be a weak property recovery The spread of performance between UK commercial property sectors hit an all-time high in 2020, with retail spiralling into a GFC-like slump, while industrial barely flinched. This gap will narrow, but... 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Prague prime pricing supportive of industrial yield falls We think that past movements in Czech bond yields mean that they are less appropriate to use in our valuation calculations. Using alternative bond benchmarks, re-calculated metrics support the view... 11th February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial REIT pricing points to a forecast upgrade The performance of the major FTSE NAREIT sub-sectors since the end of 2019 appears to suggest that our forecasts for 2021 might be too weak for industrial and too strong for the office and apartments... 10th February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations need to improve further to attract buyers Property valuations improved in Q4, after they stabilised in the previous quarter. This was largely on the back of the vaccine announcements, which drove a recovery in equity prices and lowered... 9th February 2021 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Long Run Update The future for city property In our Future of Property research, we identified important post-pandemic shifts in most real estate sectors. How these trends interact will be key to the outlook for the urban locations where most... 4th February 2021 · 6 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sharper falls in Warsaw office rents to come in 2021 Given its significant office supply pipeline, we have revised down our rental forecast for Warsaw offices this year despite a recovery in the labour market. And while we expect rents to pick up in... 3rd February 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update New space brings downgrade to NYC office rents The limited impact of the virus on New York City office construction means that we now expect at least 10mn sq. ft. of office space to be added across 2022-23. This could cause the vacancy rate to... 2nd February 2021 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Where might industrial yields fall most this year? Differences in rental prospects and risk premia confirm our view that, despite looking overvalued compared to government bond yields, there is still scope for larger falls in industrial yields in the... 1st February 2021 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Have capital value falls bottomed out? The final few months of MSCI monthly data for 2020 suggest that the fall in capital values last year was not as bad as we anticipated. But we still think a prolonged period of tight restrictions and... 29th January 2021 · 3 mins read
