UK Markets

Markets mistaken on speed of rate hikes

Although the economic backdrop has recently become less favourable for UK asset prices, we expect that the economic recovery will regain some vigour in the second half of next year, that CPI inflation...

22nd November 2021 · 12 mins read

Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Emerging Europe: More positive on near-term pricing

CEE property values completed the final leg of their recovery in Q3, fully reversing the nearly 5.5% peak-to-trough drop in 2020. With rents barely moving on the quarter, falls in yields did all the...

22nd November 2021 · 6 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Structural changes weigh on offices more than retail

Google mobility data show a much fuller recovery in visitors returning to retail and recreation than to the workplace. This supports our view that structural changes will weigh on the office sector...

19th November 2021 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Outlook

Recovery to continue, but at a slower pace

The economic recovery has stalled and the near-term outlook is softer. Meanwhile, higher inflation is expected to bring interest rate hikes as early as December 2021, though we think that the pace of...

19th November 2021 · 26 mins read

US Commercial Property Chart Pack

Office and retail sectors turning a corner

Economic growth slowed in Q3, but we expect it to pick up again in Q4. And with earnings growth and inflation at high levels, we see the Fed Funds Rate and 10-year bond yields rising over the next few...

18th November 2021 · 12 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Rental recovery picks up pace

The recovery in euro-zone commercial property values picked up in Q3, supported by a small fall in yields and an improvement in the pace of rental growth. While retail rents held steady, the quarterly...

16th November 2021 · 9 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Consensus still underestimating impact of remote work

The IPF Consensus forecasts for euro-zone prime office rental growth in 2021 have been revised up, consistent with the more positive recent data. However, expectations were revised down slightly for...

15th November 2021 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Data Response

Commercial Property Lending (Oct.)

Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fifth consecutive month in October, driven by positive net lending in both residential and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors. We think that this...

12th November 2021 · 2 mins read

UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor

Valuations deteriorate as spreads narrow

Compared to bonds and equities, property valuations deteriorated further in Q3. This was due to a combination of a fall in property yields on the one side and a rise in both bond and equity yields on...

12th November 2021 · 6 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Dutch industrial rental growth catching up with EZ

A healthy occupier backdrop and a shortage of supply should allow prime industrial rents in the Netherlands to continue to grow at a steady pace over the coming years. As a result, after years of...

11th November 2021 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Data point to upside, but outlook still fragile

The latest real estate data came in stronger than expected. But while there have been encouraging developments, particularly in the retail sector, we think this signals a short-term boost to prospects...

11th November 2021 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Bank on South Florida for office rental growth

The faster-than-average recovery in financial sector employment in the Miami metro owes much to new office openings by banking and finance firms in the last 18 months. This has made Miami one of the...

8th November 2021 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

German retail vacancy to remain elevated

The latest data show that conditions in the German retail sector are improving. Nevertheless, we think vacancy will be slow to reverse as pandemic shifts lead to weakness in in-store demand...

8th November 2021 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

REITs hint at upside risk for industrial and apartments

REIT pricing appears consistent with our view that retail values are nearing a turning point while office values have a bit further to fall. But a strong recovery in industrial and apartment REITs...

4th November 2021 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Data Response

RICS Construction Market Survey (Q3)

The latest RICS survey indicated that construction activity remained robust in Q3, while the outlook for the near term is favourable. Although we agree, we expect that building material and labour...

4th November 2021 · 2 mins read