US Commercial Property Outlook

Apartments to top the charts with total returns of 9.5% p.a.

There are tentative signs of improvement in the investment market, but we continue to think refinancing requirements will weigh on transactions. We still think appraisal-based valuations need to...

12th September 2024 · 21 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Milan office rent growth to undershoot the euro-zone

Milan office take-up has held up well in recent quarters, but this has not translated into stronger prime rental growth. With the outlook for jobs growth pointing to a slowdown in take-up while...

11th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Why we are more optimistic on rental growth

Our rental growth forecasts for the industrial and retail sectors are notably above the consensus, particularly over the next couple of years. That primarily reflects our relatively optimistic...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

Recovery in mortgage lending has further to run

Granular data showed that mortgage lending continued to recover in Q2, supported by a decline in the average mortgage rate on new lending. Our view that mortgage rates will fall further next year...

10th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

IPF Consensus Forecasts (Sep 24.)

The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed forecasters are finally coming around to our long-held view that retail will preform relatively well over the next five years. Total returns for all the retail...

6th September 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Is industrial demand back on track?

The most recent European industrial take-up figures were slightly more encouraging. We expect activity will continue to slowly improve over the next couple of years, supported by the consumer recovery...

5th September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Aug 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI edged back in August, but at 53.6 it remained in expansionary territory for the sixth consecutive month.

5th September 2024 · 1 min read

US Commercial Property Update

Dallas tops our updated rankings of 34 industrial markets

The dynamism of the industrial sector means that market-level outperformance is often only achievable for short periods, because either relative value deteriorates or new supply quickly completes...

4th September 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Immigration will support largest multifamily markets

While the headline-hitting surge in immigration last year was mainly driven by a spike in unauthorized movement, legal immigration has picked up from its pandemic lows, which is good news for many...

3rd September 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Worst of online drag is over, especially in the south

Recent estimates add to the evidence that online retail shares are growing more slowly across Europe. There has also been little sign of convergence in online shares, supporting our long-held view...

3rd September 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

Lending to commercial property (Jul. 24)

Net lending to commercial property was positive for the fourth consecutive month in July, albeit by a smaller £520mn. With development lending still negative, this was driven entirely by a rise in...

30th August 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Prime office rent gains to beat consensus expectations

Prime office rents look set to rise by more than we had previously expected over the next few years given still low CBD vacancy, preferences for prime space and cuts to the supply pipeline in 2025-26...

29th August 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Is the City of London bouncing back?

City offices have underperformed their West End neighbours by a wide margin since 2022. More encouraging recent data have led us to revise up our City rental projections, but we still expect stronger...

28th August 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Updated fair value analysis means a lower peak for yields

Our fair value analysis suggests that appraisal-based NOI yields need to rise by 50-60 bps from Q2 levels. But downgrades to our expectations for Treasury yields in the latter years of our forecast...

27th August 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack

Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack (Q3 2024)

A stabilisation of property yields and solid rent growth mean that euro-zone all-property values increased in Q2 for the first time in two years. However, market sentiment remains very weak and...

23rd August 2024 · 0 mins read