Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rising interest rates to speed up property correction The weaker economic outlook and larger increases in interest rates are expected to weigh on property performance. With valuations under increasing pressure from sharply rising bond yields, we think... 23rd June 2022 · 31 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Signs of a slowdown emerging Annual all-property rental growth reached a five-year high in May, while returns rose to levels last seen in mid-1994. But signs of a slowdown also emerged, especially in the red-hot industrial sector... 22nd June 2022 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook All-property returns to fall to zero next year as values slide The dramatic shift in the interest rate environment over the first half of the year means that we have brought forward (and increased) our forecasts for yield rises. Property valuations now look as... 21st June 2022 · 24 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Will Manchester office rental growth outperform again? After a more severe downturn in 2020, Manchester office rental growth has caught up with other regional cities in recent quarters. While employment growth and occupier activity may remain fairly weak... 17th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (May.) Commercial real estate debt continued to grow at a decent pace in May, in line with the recent strength in investment activity. However, we expect a weaker economic backdrop to weigh on commercial... 13th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Office sector joins industrial as overvalued in Q1 Higher alternative asset yields drove a sharp deterioration in European property valuations in Q1. Valuation scores declined across all sectors, though retail remained in fair value territory. With... 9th June 2022 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Central London office supply to remain strong The latest London Crane Survey showed office space under construction rose marginally, but will increase further as supply rises. This supports our view that increased supply over the next two years... 9th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Why we’re not too concerned by Amazon’s slowdown The perception of Amazon as a bellwether for the industrial sector made the announcement that it had over-expanded in the last two years a potentially worrying one. But, the fact that Amazon is only... 8th June 2022 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (May) The second consecutive fall in the construction PMI in May points to a sustained slowdown in development activity. And with the new orders balance easing and optimism of future demand declining, a... 8th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) The ongoing jobs recovery continued in April, although employment remained below its pre-pandemic level in more than half the 30 metros covered. Those losers tend to be expensive coastal metros and... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Biggest quarterly drop in property valuations on record There was a huge deterioration in property valuations in Q1, reflecting the sharp rises in alternative asset yields recorded since the start of the year. The size of those yield rises mostly dwarfed... 31st May 2022 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Office rent growth to slow, but quality gap could arise Both our view and that of the IPF Consensus is that prime office rental growth will slow as hybrid working shifts take their toll. However, we also think it is likely that a quality gap will emerge... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.) Net lending to property rose sharply in April, after three consecutive months of easing. But the latest jump is most likely a once-off as we expect that credit demand will be dented by rising interest... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (May) The latest IPF Consensus Survey indicates that the outlook for this year is stronger than expected three months ago, though after 2022 forecasts were more pessimistic. Our view remains more downbeat... 27th May 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Do recession risks threaten euro-zone rental growth? The risks of a recession in the euro-zone have risen. While we think a contraction will be narrowly avoided, this will remain a concern for property investors already facing the prospect of higher... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
