Asset Allocation Outlook Bonds may outperform equities amid a global recession After moving in broadly the same direction for much of 2022, we think that the returns from “safe” assets will generally diverge from those from “risky” assets between now and around the middle of... 1st November 2022 · 25 mins read
US Housing Market Update Small fall in apartment rents as recession bites We expect a small fall in apartment rents next year, as stretched affordability and stagnant employment hit demand while completions surge. But as job growth recovers and the vacancy rate drops back... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Sep.) Net lending to commercial property was positive in September but, looking through the monthly volatility, there is a clear downward trend in lending. With the economy entering a recession and property... 31st October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update European investment slowdown intensifying An acceleration of the slowdown in European commercial property investment in Q3 is evidence that economic growth concerns, higher interest rates and tightening credit standards are weighing heavily... 28th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) The RICS Q3 survey indicated confidence has continued to fall from last quarter, as occupier sentiment turned negative for the first time in 2022. With a US recession looking likely early next year... 27th October 2022 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) The slowing economy and cost-of-living crisis are now having a clear impact on occupier demand, with surveyors reporting the first drop since the start of 2021. That has fed through to rent and... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Helsinki office vacancy to edge higher Helsinki office vacancy jumped in Q3 and is likely to trend higher over the next couple of years as occupier demand weakens, completions rise and there are fewer office-to-residential conversions. As... 27th October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial set to underperform Industrial demand is relatively well-placed to weather the upcoming recession. Vacancy is low going into the downturn and the gradual shift to online shopping will continue. It should therefore be the... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2022) As expected, NCREIF all-property total returns dropped back significantly in Q3, to just 0.6% q/q, as investor demand pared back in response to higher alternative asset yields and the poor outlook for... 26th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Athens rent growth to slow but will outpace euro-zone We have downgraded our expectations for Athens prime rental growth over the next two years on the back of a weaker outlook for economic activity. However, with the Greek economy still expected to be... 24th October 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Hotel RevPar growth to stall in 2023 Revenues in the hotel sector have recovered to near pre-pandemic levels after being the hardest hit by COVID-19. Although there are few signs yet of momentum slowing, we expect growth in the sector to... 21st October 2022 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns see worst month since Brexit vote The rise in interest rates and upcoming recession are leading to a rapid turnaround in commercial property performance. Rental growth is starting to ease, particularly in consumer-facing sectors such... 21st October 2022 · 9 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Euro-zone all-property rents to stagnate next year The deep recession faced by the euro-zone in the coming year will cause a sharp slowdown in prime rental growth, which we now expect to drop to 0% at the all-property level next year. We don’t think... 20th October 2022 · 3 mins read
Event US Real Estate Drop-In: What recession will mean for real estate returns 1667318400 With a US recession looming, Kiran Raichura and Andrew Burrell held a briefing on the impact of weaker growth on commercial real estate returns and answering your questions.
UK Housing Market Update Will property be a problem again? The UK property market has a long history of either causing or worsening recessions. But that history has taught both banks and regulators a lesson. So while higher debt payments, falling property... 19th October 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Sep.) CRE lending growth slowed significantly in September, with both multifamily and other commercial sectors seeing the smallest rise in outstanding debt for at least six months. We expect the rate of... 17th October 2022 · 2 mins read
