UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jan.) The headline CIPS construction index showed a contraction in activity in January, with the housing index seeing a substantial decline. But the forward-looking indicators improved, with future business... 6th February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Pipelines will weigh on Austin, NYC and Seattle offices We expect a further slowing in office completions over the next few years as a combination of factors weigh on the profitability of new projects. But our latest review of the metro-level completion... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Explaining the surge in yields The rise in yields in the final quarter of last year was larger than that seen at the start of the GFC. While the magnitude of the rise can be explained by the jump in risk-free interest rates, the... 3rd February 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Chinese tourist rebound no silver bullet for prime retail The reversal of China’s zero-COVID policy means Chinese tourists could return to European high streets sooner than expected. While this should help support occupier demand, it seems unlikely it will... 2nd February 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Dec.) Despite the solid payrolls data for December, there was a clear softening in employment growth in several large metros. But those that have performed the best since the pandemic continue to outperform... 1st February 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack We think the rally in risky assets is on borrowed time The broad-based rally in “risky” assets that got underway in Q4 of last year has continued in 2023 so far, with global equities, developed market (DM) REITs, corporate bonds and industrial metals all... 31st January 2023 · 12 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update German office values fall faster than after the GFC Early data indicate that German offices saw the steepest increases in yields on record in late 2022. And we think that with policy rates set to go higher, it is too early to rule out further rises in... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Dec.) Even as investors have pulled back from the market, net lending to property remained positive in December. That may reflect some distressed borrowing as investors looks to boost liquidity in the face... 31st January 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital value falls to ease in 2023 Yields have continued to surprise on the upside, with the all-property equivalent yield rising by 106bps in the three months to December. That matches the worst months of the GFC, and even though... 27th January 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Hawkish ECB will weigh on euro-zone investment Euro-zone investment contracted sharply in Q4 2022 and we think further interest rate rises will prolong this weakness throughout much of this year. But we expect a recovery in transactions towards... 27th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q4) The latest RICS Survey conveyed a further decline in confidence following a turning point in the previous quarter. Comments from surveyors point to high interest rates as the main concern, and we... 26th January 2023 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q4) The slowing economy led to a further fall in occupier demand in Q4, with retail seeing the largest contraction. So far, the fall in rental expectations has been relatively modest and surveyors expect... 26th January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q4 2022) The 4.45% hit to all-property capital values in Q4 was more substantial than our end-2022 forecasts implied, although recent news of bigger valuation markdowns in December made this less of a surprise... 25th January 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Retail rent outlook weak despite recent better news Since the end of last year, developments have been more positive in the retail sector. However, we still think 2023 will be a difficult year. The weak outlook for consumer spending and more spending... 25th January 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we nearing a trough for Scandinavian investment? Near term economic headwinds suggest the slowdown in investment activity in Scandinavia will continue in 2023. However, with policy rates near a peak, and improving economic activity and falling bond... 23rd January 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Investment set for weak H1 before picking up in late-2023 We expect the slowdown in investment activity in the second half of 2022 to persist into the first half of 2023. But we think transactions will begin to recover later this year once interest rates... 20th January 2023 · 3 mins read
