Europe Commercial Property Update Consensus office rental view still looks too sanguine May’s IPF Consensus Forecasts highlighted another upgrade to short-term euro-zone office rental expectations. Our figures remain significantly weaker for 2023. From next year, our view is closer to... 17th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Property close to fairly valued Following a surge in property yields over the second half of last year, property moved closer to fair value again in Q1. Admittedly, on our measure the all-property score is still sitting in... 17th May 2023 · 7 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Apr.) Net commercial real estate (CRE) lending slowed sharply once again in April. Lending against all commercial sectors turned negative for the first time in nearly six years, and with little in the way... 15th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Manufacturing will boom while incentives last The sharp rise in US manufacturing construction over the past two years is likely to continue into the medium term as firms take advantage of favourable government incentives. But as these expire... 12th May 2023 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Sweden's property credit crunch intensifies The recent downgrading of Swedish property company SBB’s credit rating to “junk” and the ensuing market fallout have highlighted financing fragilities in the Swedish property market. But, while SBB is... 11th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Is industrial still dangerously overvalued? Substantial yield compression over the past two years meant that by the middle of 2022 industrial had become the most overvalued sector since our measure began in 1992. That helps explains the... 11th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Brighter outlook for Paris office rents Although recent data suggest that Paris offices had a slow start to the year, we think this weakness will be short-lived. Indeed, with demand prospects looking favourable and new supply set to slow... 10th May 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Affordability adds downside risk to big 6 apartments We think migration patterns of footloose workers will continue to play the largest role in driving the rental outlook across metros. But rent as a share of income will also have a bearing, weighing on... 9th May 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Apr.) The April CIPS Construction PMI showed a growing divergence between the housing and commercial sectors, with activity in the latter seeing a gradual recovery while the former declined to a 36-month... 5th May 2023 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Resilient Stockholm office rents will falter before long Although rent growth has been resilient, as the Swedish economy enters recession and employment contracts, we think the recent slowdown in Stockholm office occupier demand will persist. And with new... 5th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Market Survey (Q1 23) The latest RICS Construction Survey showed an improvement in construction workloads and surveyors’ expectations also brightened. That is in line with other data showing the economy is proving more... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Mar.) Even as commercial property investment has collapsed, net lending to property has been stable at close to zero since the start of the year. That suggests investors are building up war chests to snap... 4th May 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Strength of Berlin office rents won’t last Berlin offices have been outperforming those in other German markets for some time. But Q1 data suggest that growth has begun to falter, and we think that the recent strength of the market won’t last. 3rd May 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack 2023’s rally in US equities is looking a little thin The MSCI USA Index has not made much further headway on net in April so far. But it has at least held on to its strong gains from earlier in 2023, returning about 8% YTD. Part of that strength... 28th April 2023 · 13 mins read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Total returns stabilise, but too soon to call bottom All-property yields have stabilised since the start of the year and alongside continued rental growth, that means total returns were more-or-less flat during Q1. But, while the worst is over, the... 28th April 2023 · 8 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could the investment downturn reach GFC-lows? The slowdown in European investment intensified in Q1 as transactions more than halved year-on-year. This was perhaps unsurprising given the ongoing price correction amid one of the sharpest... 28th April 2023 · 3 mins read
