US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Jan.) January was an especially strong month for payrolls data, and this translated into positive employment growth across all 30 of the biggest metros. However, this was not the case for office-based jobs... 17th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Initial US real estate takeaways from the bank collapses The direct impact on real estate of the collapse of two US regional banks over the weekend is likely to be relatively small. But we expect lending criteria to become more cautious in the short-term... 16th March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Rental growth resilience won’t last Even as the economy has slowed nominal all-property rental growth has held up relatively well. But that largely reflects the impact of high inflation, which is now falling. In any event, underlying... 15th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Feb.) Net commercial real estate lending ticked up in February following a slowdown the month prior. That said, monthly lending activity across all sectors remained below the average for 2022. With January... 13th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update West Coast ports to rally while Houston stands resilient Failed dockworker union negotiations on the West Coast have led to further diversion of US imports toward the East and Gulf Coasts, supporting warehousing demand in those markets for longer than... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Unpacking our new euro-zone forecasts There were some surprises in the Q4 commercial real estate data from the euro-zone, in particular in how swiftly yields have risen. Taken together with changes to our economic view these imply further... 10th March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update More pain ahead for Italian industrial The Italian industrial market saw its sharpest fall in capital values on record last year, owing to a surge in yields in Q4. But with valuations still stretched and investor demand weakening, we think... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Industrial completions set to fall back from 2024 We expect industrial completions to exceed 3.5% of inventory this year, despite the first quarterly drop in space under construction in Q4 for over two years. But new starts are already slowing and... 9th March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial pipeline not a major risk A record amount of industrial space is currently under construction, which looks poorly timed given the upcoming recession. However, the sector is entering the downturn in a strong position with very... 8th March 2023 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Feb.) The headline CIPS construction index rebounded back into expansionary territory in February and the forward-looking indicators also showed further improvement. Commercial developers may be taking... 6th March 2023 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Widespread downgrades to office-based job forecasts Our new forecasts for metro employment growth have prompted limited change in the rankings for total jobs over the next three years. But, there are two shifts, both owing much to recent and likely... 3rd March 2023 · 5 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Property returns to revive over the longer term The current economic downturn will mean that short-to-medium term property performance is under-par. But over a longer horizon, we expect real estate returns to reassert their traditional position... 2nd March 2023 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuations improve but all sectors still overvalued A sharp increase in property yields in Q4 helped European property valuations improve for the first time in two years. That said, spreads over alternative assets remained very narrow by past standards... 2nd March 2023 · 6 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response IPF Consensus Forecasts (Feb.) The latest IPF Consensus Survey showed a modest upgrade to forecasts for total returns in 2023, driven by an uplift to the capital value view. That looks to reflect the larger-than-expected fall in... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jan.) Net lending to property was once again positive in January, even as commercial property investment collapsed in the final quarter of last year. Investors may be preparing to re-enter the market and... 1st March 2023 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Chart Pack Cash is king as “higher-for-longer” worries take hold While the ~0.3% return from US dollar cash between 31st January and 24th February was hardly impressive, cash nonetheless outperformed all of the other eighteen headline indices that we track. As data... 28th February 2023 · 13 mins read
