Europe Commercial Property Focus

What is the outlook for German residential?

Poor economic growth and vulnerability to structural change in the office and retail sector are set to weigh on German property returns in the coming years. But solid rental prospects in the...

23rd October 2024 · 14 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Are we underestimating the capital value recovery?

The strong recovery in property equities prices across the UK, euro-zone and US implies larger rises in commercial property capital values by the end of the year than we are currently forecasting...

22nd October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Alternatives set to account for above 20% of investment

Alternatives have grown in importance in portfolios in recent years and structural drivers including AI, an aging population and poor housing affordability point to further growth in occupier demand...

22nd October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Apartment performance to top consensus estimates

Upward revisions by the ULI consensus mean our forecasts remain more downbeat over the next couple of years. However, this is largely down to our weaker view on industrial, while our forecasts for the...

21st October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Housing Market Rapid Response

Housing Starts (Sep. 2024)

The small fall in housing starts in September was entirely due to the multi-family segment, whereas single-family starts rose to a five-month high. While starts will probably weaken this month due to...

18th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Dutch logistics will continue to outperform

Dutch prime logistics rent growth is set to be among the highest in the region over the next few years. That reflects both strong prospects for leasing, thanks to a bright economic outlook and greater...

17th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

All signs point to capital value recovery

Surveys of banks, developers and surveyors all point to a recovery in capital values over the next few months. As does the behaviour of investors. The strength of that recovery is more uncertain, with...

16th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

Consumer spending outlook bodes well for industrial rents

Industrial’s shift toward logistics means consumer-focused economic variables have become important drivers of rental growth. Admittedly, employment growth is set to slow. But a combination of...

15th October 2024 · 3 mins read

US Commercial Property Rapid Response

Flagging previous climate risk notes

In light of both Hurricanes Helene and Milton we are flagging notes where we highlighted the physical climate risks facing the US.

14th October 2024 · 1 min read

US Housing Market Outlook

Lower mortgage rates to gradually thaw frozen market

We expect mortgage rates to continue falling, dropping below 6% in 2026. Lower borrowing costs will breathe some life into the market, but stretched affordability and tight supply due to mortgage rate...

10th October 2024 · 14 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Rental growth to converge in Spain’s top high streets

Prime high street rental growth in Barcelona has outpaced Madrid since late 2022. However, we think rental growth will converge in the coming years as tourism numbers fall back to pre-pandemic levels...

10th October 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Retail ‘flight to quality’ limited to shopping centres

In contrast to offices, there is less evidence of a ‘flight to quality’ in the overall retail sector. Shopping centres are the exception, where the spread between both prime and non-prime yields, and...

10th October 2024 · 4 mins read

US Commercial Property Update

What could a Trump win mean for commercial real estate?

On the back of client questions, we have put together this short primer on the potential impact of a second Trump term on commercial real estate markets, both in the US and elsewhere. The key takeaway...

7th October 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Rapid Response

S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Sep 24)

The headline CIPS construction PMI rebounded to a 2½ year high of 57.2 in September as the prospect of lower interest rates, rising capital values and a government committed to boosting home...

4th October 2024 · 1 min read

Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly

Changes to housing tax breaks could hit rental supply

The Australian government is reportedly considering clamping down on tax breaks for property investors. If the government did indeed reduce and/or phase out existing tax concessions, it would make the...

4th October 2024 · 4 mins read