UK Commercial Property Focus Do commercial property derivatives have predictive power? Commercial property derivative (CPD) pricing data provide a useful steer on the general mood and sentiment of the commercial property investment fraternity. 7th May 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus Has the property investment market cycle changed? We believe that debt-backed retail and international investors will remain a permanent fixture in the UK’s commercial property market. Their presence will make abrupt yield shifts, like that which we... 30th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus What is the outlook for hotel property? Our macroeconomic forecasts suggest that after being one of the best performing property sectors over recent years and the “best of the worst” in 2008, weak economic growth in the UK, Euro-zone and US... 24th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update RICS survey highlights vulnerability of retail rental values to falls In a Commercial Property Data Response on Monday, we reported on the aggregate balances from the RICS Commercial Market Survey for 2008Q1, which were worryingly downbeat. Now, having had more time to... 23rd April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The economic damage from the other property crash The weakening housing market has diverted attention from the crash which has already occurred in the commercial property market. But the commercial property downturn could hit the wider economy by... 9th April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus The outlook for leisure property returns We expect the leisure property sector to be the only commercial property sub-sector to report positive returns in 2008. This will end 12 years of underperformance. Over the next few years, we expect... 1st April 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Why have real office rental values fallen over time? Although there have clearly been major cycles, real all-office rental values are currently 48% lower than their level in 1975. (See Chart 1.) But against the general backdrop of an increasingly... 22nd February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Weak economy to prompt rental downturn and extend soft returns into 2009 (Q1 08) Until recently, we were optimistic that the commercial property correction would be short-lived and driven solely by a yield shift. But we have revised down our forecasts for GDP growth in 2008 and... 13th February 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Real estate equities down 40%: will property prices follow suit? In our view, there is no reason to believe that just because real estate equity prices have fallen by 40% since the start of 2007 IPD capital values will eventually fall by a similar amount. In fact... 17th January 2008 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property correction set to be sharper, but it will also be over sooner (Q4 07) Our medium-term forecasts are little changed. We still expect capital values in 2010 to be some 10% to 12% lower than at the end of 2006 while total annual returns for the period 2007 to 2011 will... 28th November 2007 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Emerging commercial property correction will intensify next year (Q3 07) Our forecasts for the commercial property market remain on track. Developments over the past quarter have done nothing to change our view that commercial property is heading for a correction driven by... 20th September 2007 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Capital values set to fall in 2008 as the boom finally ends (Q2 07) This edition of the Analyst marks a distinct change in our expectations for the commercial property market. We have been warning about the upside risks to interest rates and thus the downside risks to... 7th June 2007 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Commercial property total returns set to halve in 2007 (Q1 07) Our forecasts are only marginally changed from the previous edition of the Commercial Property Analyst. Despite a slight moderation this year, we expect solid GDP growth over the medium term. Although... 7th March 2007 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook A modest rise in interest rates will not generate a commercial property crash (Q4 06) Neither our macro-economic nor our commercial property market forecasts have changed materially since the previous edition of the Analyst. We expect GDP growth to slow from an estimated 2.5% in 2006... 18th December 2006 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Commercial Property Analyst Publication (Q3 06) Recent developments have reinforced our belief that commercial property now looks overvalued relative to both the performance of the underlying occupier market and other assets. Thus the end to the... 2nd August 2006 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Momentum ensures 2006 will be another cracker, but rising yields will douse returns next year With yields continuing to fall, we believe that commercial property is over-valued against bonds, equities and the performance of the underlying occupier market. However, we believe yields will... 26th May 2006 · 1 min read
